Rose Adam, Oladosu Gbadebo, Liao Shu-Yi
School of Policy Planning and Development, DHS Center for Risk and Economic Analysis of Terrorism Events (CREATE), University of Southern California (USC), Los Angeles, CA 90089, USA.
Risk Anal. 2007 Jun;27(3):513-31. doi: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.2007.00912.x.
Regional economies are highly dependent on electricity, thus making their power supply systems attractive terrorist targets. We estimate the largest category of economic losses from electricity outages-business interruption-in the context of a total blackout of electricity in Los Angeles. We advance the state of the art in the estimation of the two factors that strongly influence the losses: indirect effects and resilience. The results indicate that indirect effects in the context of general equilibrium analysis are moderate in size. The stronger factor, and one that pushes in the opposite direction, is resilience. Our analysis indicates that electricity customers have the ability to mute the potential shock to their business operations by as much as 86%. Moreover, market resilience lowers the losses, in part through the dampening of general equilibrium effects.
区域经济高度依赖电力，因此其供电系统成为恐怖分子极具吸引力的目标。我们在洛杉矶全面停电的背景下，估算了停电造成的最大类别的经济损失——业务中断。我们在估算对损失有强烈影响的两个因素方面取得了进展：间接影响和恢复力。结果表明，在一般均衡分析背景下，间接影响的规模适中。更强的因素，且作用方向相反的因素，是恢复力。我们的分析表明，电力客户有能力将对其业务运营的潜在冲击降低多达86%。此外，市场恢复力降低了损失，部分原因是抑制了一般均衡效应。
