School of International and Public Affairs, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai 200030, China.
School of Economics and Management, Tongji University, Shanghai 200092, China.
Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2022 May 19;19(10):6192. doi: 10.3390/ijerph19106192.
Disaster-preventive migration (DPM) is an important method for disaster risk management, but migration itself entails a potential social stability risk. This study took County D in Yunnan Province, one of the counties most severely threatened by geological disasters in China, as an example to construct an indicator system of social stability risk factors for disaster-preventive migration based on a literature survey and in-depth interviews. The system consists of 5 first-level risk factors and 14 s-level risk factors. The social stability risk of DPM in County D was assessed using a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method based on experts’ weights. The results showed that the overall social stability risk level of disaster-preventive migration in County D is ‘high’. In terms of importance, the five first-level risk factors were ranked as follows: public opinion risk > compensation risk > livelihood recovery risk > cultural risk > geological disaster risk. Among the risk factors, the level of public opinion risk and compensation risk appeared to be high, whereas that of livelihood recovery risk, cultural risk and geological disaster risk resulted to be medium. To our knowledge, this paper is the first research to evaluate the social stability risk of DPM; it not only enriches the theories of social stability risk assessment, but also has important guiding significance for people relocation and resettlement in Chinese ethnic minority areas.
防灾移民（DPM）是灾害风险管理的重要方法，但移民本身存在潜在的社会稳定风险。本研究以云南省 D 县为例，该地区是中国受地质灾害威胁最严重的地区之一，基于文献调查和深入访谈，构建了防灾移民社会稳定风险因素指标体系。该体系由 5 个一级风险因素和 14 个二级风险因素组成。采用基于专家权重的模糊综合评价法对 D 县 DPM 的社会稳定风险进行评估。结果表明，D 县防灾移民的整体社会稳定风险水平为“高”。在重要性方面，五个一级风险因素的排名如下：舆情风险＞补偿风险＞生计恢复风险＞文化风险＞地质灾害风险。在风险因素中，舆情风险和补偿风险水平较高，而生计恢复风险、文化风险和地质灾害风险水平中等。据我们所知，本文是首次对 DPM 的社会稳定风险进行评估的研究；它不仅丰富了社会稳定风险评估理论，而且对中国少数民族地区的人口迁移和安置具有重要的指导意义。
