Epidemiology Group, ICMR-National Institute of Virology, Pune 411021, India.
Dengue and Chikungunya Group, ICMR-National Institute of Virology, Pune 411001, India.
Viruses. 2022 May 7;14(5):998. doi: 10.3390/v14050998.
Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) is an arthropod-borne virus capable of causing large outbreaks. We aimed to determine the decadal change in the extent of chikungunya virus infection from 2009 to 2019. We implemented a prospective cross-sectional survey in Pune City using a 30-cluster approach with probability-proportion-to-size (PPS) sampling, with blood samples collected from 1654 participants in early 2019. The study also included an additional 799 blood samples from an earlier serosurvey in late 2009. The samples were tested by an in-house anti-CHIKV IgG ELISA assay. The overall seroprevalence in 2019 was 53.2% (95% CI 50.7−55.6) as against 8.5% (95% CI 6.5−10.4) in 2009. A fivefold increase in seroprevalence was observed in a decade (p < 0.00001). The seroprevalence increased significantly with age; however, it did not differ between genders. Modeling of age-stratified seroprevalence data from 2019 coincided with a recent outbreak in 2016 followed by the low-level circulation. The mean estimated force of infection during the outbreak was 35.8% (95% CI 2.9−41.2), and it was 1.2% after the outbreak. To conclude, the study reports a fivefold increase in the seroprevalence of chikungunya infection over a decade in Pune City. The modeling approach considering intermittent outbreaks with continuous low-level circulation was a better fit and coincided with a recent outbreak reported in 2016. Community engagement and effective vector control measures are needed to avert future chikungunya outbreaks.
基孔肯雅热病毒（CHIKV）是一种虫媒病毒，能够引起大规模疫情爆发。我们旨在确定 2009 年至 2019 年期间基孔肯雅热病毒感染范围的十年变化。我们采用前瞻性横断面研究方法，在浦那市使用 30 个聚类方法和概率比例大小（PPS）抽样，于 2019 年初采集了 1654 名参与者的血样。该研究还包括了 2009 年末早期血清学调查中的另外 799 份血样。采用内部抗 CHIKV IgG ELISA 检测法检测样本。2019 年的总血清阳性率为 53.2%（95%CI 50.7-55.6），而 2009 年为 8.5%（95%CI 6.5-10.4）。在十年内，血清阳性率增加了五倍（p<0.00001）。血清阳性率随年龄增长显著增加；然而，性别之间没有差异。对 2019 年按年龄分层的血清阳性率数据进行建模，与 2016 年的近期疫情爆发后低水平传播相符。疫情期间的平均估计感染率为 35.8%（95%CI 2.9-41.2），疫情后为 1.2%。总之，本研究报告了浦那市十年来基孔肯雅热感染血清阳性率增加了五倍。考虑到间歇性爆发和持续低水平传播的建模方法更合适，并且与 2016 年报告的最近一次疫情相符。需要开展社区参与和有效的病媒控制措施，以避免未来的基孔肯雅热疫情爆发。
