Inflammatory markers and incident depression: Evidence in a population-based prospective study.

The association between pro-inflammatory cytokines and depression is widely acknowledged. However, longitudinal data that show they lead to depression are few. In a community-based sample of older individuals (n = 2761, ages = 55-98 y) in the Singapore Longitudinal Ageing Study (SLAS), we analyzed the associations between inflammatory markers (CRP, IL6, TNFα, and inflammation risk score) and depression (defined as the presence of depressive symptoms, depression history or treatment). Cross-sectional analysis showed that CRP, IL-6 and TNFα were significantly associated with depression at baseline. Longitudinal analysis controlling for a host of potentially confounding risk factors and initial depression revealed that IL-6, TNFα, and inflammation risk score were associated with elevated risk of depression at follow-ups. However, there was no significant association between CRP and subsequent depression after adjusting for sociodemographic, lifestyles and inflammatory medical condition variables. In summary, this prospective study shows that inflammation predicts depression in older adults, and suggests that the heterogeneous findings among studies may be due to differences in study population characteristics, depression, inflammatory markers, and the extent of adjusting for confounders.