Murphy Rachel A, Parks Jaclyn, Woods Ryan, Brenner Darren R, Ruan Yibing, Bhatti Parveen
School of Population and Public Health, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada.
Cancer Control Research, British Columbia (BC) Cancer, Vancouver, BC, Canada.
Front Oncol. 2022 May 12;12:872765. doi: 10.3389/fonc.2022.872765. eCollection 2022.
The COVID-19 pandemic and resulting public health measures have had significant impacts on daily life, including shifts in health behaviours which contribute to weight gain and may increase subsequent risk of chronic diseases such as cancer. Using OncoSim, a web-based microsimulation tool, we estimated the future burden of cancer in Canada by incorporating data on unintentional weight gain among adults during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic. Population impact measures were estimated until 2042, assuming a 12-year latency period. We estimated 14,194 excess cancer cases and 5,324 excess cancer deaths by 2042 due to COVID-19 related weight gain. Particularly large impacts were estimated for endometrial and breast cancer among women, with 2,983 and 2,151 excess cases by 2042. For men, 1,700 excess colorectal cases and 1,188 excess kidney cancer cases were projected by 2042. Changes in health behavior during the COVID-19 pandemic are likely to have significant and long-lasting impacts on cancer burden. These projections highlight the immediate need for investment into the development and implementation of effective cancer prevention strategies.
新冠疫情及其引发的公共卫生措施对日常生活产生了重大影响，包括健康行为的改变，这些改变会导致体重增加，并可能增加后续患癌症等慢性病的风险。我们使用基于网络的微观模拟工具OncoSim，通过纳入新冠疫情第一年成年人意外体重增加的数据，估算了加拿大未来的癌症负担。假设潜伏期为12年，我们估算了到2042年的人群影响指标。由于与新冠疫情相关的体重增加，到2042年我们估计会有14,194例额外的癌症病例和5,324例额外的癌症死亡。预计对女性子宫内膜癌和乳腺癌的影响尤为巨大，到2042年将分别有2,983例和2,151例额外病例。对于男性，到2042年预计将有1,700例额外的结直肠癌病例和1,188例额外的肾癌病例。新冠疫情期间健康行为的变化可能会对癌症负担产生重大且持久的影响。这些预测凸显了立即投资开发和实施有效癌症预防策略的必要性。
