Molecular Ecology & Evolution Group, Department of Biosciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, United Kingdom.
PeerJ. 2022 May 27;10:e13509. doi: 10.7717/peerj.13509. eCollection 2022.
Species distribution models have become a valuable tool to predict the distribution of species across geographic space and time. In this study, maximum entropy models were constructed for two temperate shallow-water octocoral species, the pink sea fan () and dead man's fingers (), to investigate and compare habitat suitability. The study area covered the north-east Atlantic from the Bay of Biscay to the British Isles and southern Norway; this area includes both the northern range of and the middle-northern range of . The optimal models for each species showed that, overall, slope, temperature at the seafloor and wave orbital velocity were important predictors of distribution in both species. Predictions of habitat suitability showed areas of present-day (1951-2000) suitable habitat where colonies have not yet been observed, particularly for , where areas beyond its known northern range limit were identified. Moreover, analysis with future layers (2081-2100) of temperature and oxygen concentration predicted a sizable increase in habitat suitability for beyond these current range limits under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 scenario. This suggests that projected climate change may induce a potential range expansion northward for , although successful colonisation would also be conditional on other factors such as dispersal and interspecific competition. For , this scenario of projected climate change may result in more suitable habitat in higher latitudes, but, as with , there is a degree of uncertainty in the model predictions. Importantly, the results from this study highlight present-day areas of high habitat suitability which, if combined with knowledge on population density, could be used to identify priority areas to enhance protection and ensure the long-term survival of these octocoral species in the region.
物种分布模型已成为预测物种在地理空间和时间上分布的一种有价值的工具。在这项研究中，构建了最大熵模型，以研究和比较两种温带浅水八放珊瑚物种——粉红海扇（）和死人指（）的栖息地适宜性。研究区域覆盖了东北大西洋，从比斯开湾到不列颠群岛和挪威南部；该区域包括和的中北部范围。每个物种的最优模型表明，总体而言，坡度、海底温度和波浪轨道速度是两种物种分布的重要预测因子。栖息地适宜性预测显示了当前（1951-2000 年）适宜栖息地的区域，这些区域目前尚未观察到群体，特别是对于，确定了超出其已知北部范围的区域。此外，利用未来（2081-2100 年）的温度和氧气浓度层进行分析，预测在代表浓度路径 8.5 情景下，的适宜栖息地面积将大幅增加，超出这些当前范围限制。这表明，预计的气候变化可能会导致向北扩张的潜在范围，尽管成功的殖民化也将取决于其他因素，如扩散和种间竞争。对于，这种预测的气候变化情景可能会导致更高纬度地区的适宜栖息地增加，但与类似，模型预测存在一定程度的不确定性。重要的是，这项研究的结果突出了当前高栖息地适宜性的区域，如果结合种群密度的知识，可以用来确定优先区域，以加强保护并确保这些八放珊瑚物种在该地区的长期生存。
