Gregg Patricia M, Zhan Yan, Amelung Falk, Geist Dennis, Mothes Patricia, Koric Seid, Yunjun Zhang
Department of Geology, School of Earth, Society, and Environment, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL, USA.
Earth and Planets Laboratory, Carnegie Institution for Science, Washington, DC, USA.
Sci Adv. 2022 Jun 3;8(22):eabm4261. doi: 10.1126/sciadv.abm4261.
Using recent advancements in high-performance computing data assimilation to combine satellite InSAR data with numerical models, the prolonged unrest of the Sierra Negra volcano in the Galápagos was tracked to provide a fortuitous, but successful, forecast 5 months in advance of the 26 June 2018 eruption. Subsequent numerical simulations reveal that the evolution of the stress state in the host rock surrounding the Sierra Negra magma system likely controlled eruption timing. While changes in magma reservoir pressure remained modest (<15 MPa), modeled widespread Mohr-Coulomb failure is coincident with the timing of the 26 June 2018 moment magnitude 5.4 earthquake and subsequent eruption. Coulomb stress transfer models suggest that the faulting event triggered the 2018 eruption by encouraging tensile failure along the northern portion of the caldera. These findings provide a critical framework for understanding Sierra Negra's eruption cycles and evaluating the potential and timing of future eruptions.
利用高性能计算数据同化方面的最新进展，将卫星合成孔径雷达干涉测量（InSAR）数据与数值模型相结合，对加拉帕戈斯群岛塞拉内格拉火山的长期动荡进行了追踪，从而在2018年6月26日火山喷发前5个月做出了一次偶然但成功的预测。随后的数值模拟表明，塞拉内格拉岩浆系统周围围岩应力状态的演变可能控制了喷发时间。虽然岩浆库压力变化不大（<15兆帕），但模拟的广泛莫尔-库仑破坏与2018年6月26日矩震级5.4级地震及随后的火山喷发时间一致。库仑应力转移模型表明，断层事件通过促使火山口北部发生拉伸破坏引发了2018年的火山喷发。这些发现为理解塞拉内格拉火山的喷发周期以及评估未来喷发的可能性和时间提供了关键框架。
