Carranza-Ugarte Luis, Díaz-Saavedra Julián, Galdon-Sanchez Jose Enrique
Instituto de Gobierno y Gestión Pública Universidad San Martín de Porres, Martín Dulanto 101, Miraflores 15047 Lima, Peru.
Departamento de Teoría e Historia Económica, Universidad de Granada, Campus de la Cartuja s/n 18011 Granada, Spain.
J Comp Econ. 2023 Mar 10. doi: 10.1016/j.jce.2023.02.005.
The Covid 19 pandemic has caused both a decrease in tax revenues and an increase in public spending, forcing governments to increase fiscal deficits to unprecedented levels. Given these circumstances, it is foreseeable that fiscal rules will play a predominant role in the design of many countries' recovery policies. We develop a general equilibrium, overlapping generations model for a small, open economy in order to study the impact of several fiscal rules upon welfare, public expenditures and growth. We calibrate the model to the Peruvian economy. In this economy, fiscal rules have been widely used and, unlike in other Latin American countries, they have been relatively successful. We find that fiscal rules will generate better results in terms of output if, in addition to maintaining control over the fiscal result, they also preserve public investment. We also find that the performance of economies that implement structural rules tends to be better than the performance of economies that implement rules based on realized budget balance.
新冠疫情导致税收收入减少，公共支出增加，迫使各国政府将财政赤字提高到前所未有的水平。在这种情况下，可以预见的是，财政规则将在许多国家的复苏政策设计中发挥主导作用。我们构建了一个小型开放经济的一般均衡世代交叠模型，以研究若干财政规则对福利、公共支出和增长的影响。我们将该模型校准至秘鲁经济。在秘鲁经济中，财政规则得到广泛应用，并且与其他拉丁美洲国家不同，这些规则相对较为成功。我们发现，如果财政规则除了保持对财政结果的控制外，还能保护公共投资，那么在产出方面将产生更好的结果。我们还发现，实施结构性规则的经济体的表现往往优于实施基于实际预算平衡的规则的经济体。
