Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster of Ministry of Education, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China; State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China; Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management, Ministry of Emergency Management and Ministry of Education, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China.
Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster of Ministry of Education, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China; State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China; Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management, Ministry of Emergency Management and Ministry of Education, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China.
Sci Total Environ. 2022 Sep 10;838(Pt 3):156521. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.156521. Epub 2022 Jun 6.
Changes in extreme events have received increasing attention in the context of climate change. Extreme changes in wet and dry events due to changes in meteorological elements, such as the spatial and temporal redistribution of precipitation and temperature increases, are extreme weather events that have attracted much attention in recent years. In contrast, there is a relative lack of research on extreme compound events that focuses on a transition between wet and dry spells in adjacent months. This paper provides maps of the frequency, duration, and severity of national-scale dry wet abrupt alternation (DWAA) events for 1980-1999 and 2000-2019, aiming to obtain information regarding events in the hotspot areas of DWAA in China during the past four decades in order to analyze their change patterns. This paper performs station-based standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) calculations to characterize local wet and dry spells based on meteorological observations provided by the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) since 1980 with regional analyses based on seven geographic divisions of China. Our finding explicitly discloses the "more-less-more" DWAA variation pattern from North to South China. Additionally, the changes in frequency, duration, and severity in the different regions are revealed. The frequency, duration, and severity of DW increased from 5.08 to 6.74, 17.71 to 24.62, and 12.51 to 17.01, respectively, an increase of 32.53%, 39.04% and 36.01%, while the corresponding WD only increased by 9.45%, 15.22% and 13.51%. In addition, events with a higher severity of DWAA are prone to appear in most regions due to the increasing interval between heavy rainfall and the increase in precipitation under global warming.
气候变化背景下,极端事件变化受到越来越多的关注。由于气象要素变化,如降水时空再分配和温度升高,导致干湿事件的极端变化,是近年来引起关注的极端天气事件。相比之下,对于相邻月份干湿期之间转变的极端复合事件的研究相对较少。本文提供了 1980-1999 年和 2000-2019 年全国范围干-湿突跃交替(DWAA)事件的频率、持续时间和严重程度的地图,旨在获取中国过去四十年 DWAA 热点地区事件的信息,以分析其变化模式。本文使用基于气象观测的站标准化降水蒸散指数(SPEI)计算方法,根据中国气象局(CMA)自 1980 年以来提供的气象观测,对当地干湿期进行特征化描述,并基于中国的七个地理分区进行区域分析。我们的发现明确揭示了中国从北到南的“多-少-多”DWAA 变化模式。此外,还揭示了不同地区频率、持续时间和严重程度的变化。DW 的频率、持续时间和严重程度分别从 5.08 增加到 6.74、17.71 增加到 24.62 和 12.51 增加到 17.01,分别增加了 32.53%、39.04%和 36.01%,而相应的 WD 仅增加了 9.45%、15.22%和 13.51%。此外,由于全球变暖下大雨间隔增加和降水增加,大多数地区更易出现严重程度更高的 DWAA 事件。