Maternal-fetal medicine Research Centre, Shiraz University of Medical Sciences, Shiraz.
Non-communicable diseases Research Centre, Shiraz University of Medical Sciences, Shiraz.
Geospat Health. 2022 Jun 8;17(s1). doi: 10.4081/gh.2022.1065.
This study aimed at detecting space-time clusters of COVID-19 cases in Fars Province, Iran and at investigating their potential association with meteorological factors, such as temperature, precipitation and wind velocity. Time-series data including 53,554 infected people recorded in 26 cities from 18 February to 30 September 2020 together with 5876 meteorological records were subjected to the analysis. Applying a significance level of P<0.05, the analysis of space-time distribution of COVID-19 resulted in nine significant outbreaks within the study period. The most likely cluster occurred from 27 March to 13 July 2020 and contained 11% of the total cases with eight additional, secondary clusters. We found that the COVID-19 incidence rate was affected by high temperature (OR=1.64; 95% CI: 1.44-1.87), while precipitation and wind velocity had less effect (OR=0.84; 95% CI: 0.75-0.89 and OR=0.27; 95% CI: 0.14-0.51), respectively.
本研究旨在检测伊朗法尔斯省 COVID-19 病例的时空聚集，并调查它们与气象因素（如温度、降水和风速）的潜在关联。时间序列数据包括 2020 年 2 月 18 日至 9 月 30 日期间来自 26 个城市的 53554 例感染者记录和 5876 份气象记录，均进行了分析。应用 P<0.05 的显著性水平，COVID-19 的时空分布分析得出，在研究期间发生了九次显著爆发。最可能的集群发生在 2020 年 3 月 27 日至 7 月 13 日，占总病例的 11%，还有另外 8 个次要集群。我们发现 COVID-19 的发病率受到高温的影响（OR=1.64；95%CI：1.44-1.87），而降水和风速的影响较小（OR=0.84；95%CI：0.75-0.89 和 OR=0.27；95%CI：0.14-0.51）。
