State Key Laboratory for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, National Clinical Research Center for Infectious Diseases, Collaborative Innovation Center for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, The First Affiliated Hospital, College of Medicine, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, 310003, China.
Division of Hepatobiliary and Pancreatic Surgery, Hepatobiliary and Pancreatic Interventional Treatment Center, The First Affiliated Hospital, College of Medicine, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, 310003, China.
Esophagus. 2022 Oct;19(4):560-568. doi: 10.1007/s10388-022-00927-4. Epub 2022 Jun 11.
We provide an up-to-date overview of recent international trends (1990-2012) and predicted trends (2013-2030) in the incidence rates of esophageal cancer.
We used data from the Cancer Incidence in Five Continents (CI5plus) database that contains annual incidence data by cancer site, age, and sex as well as corresponding populations. The age-standardized esophageal cancer incidence rates of each country were calculated and plotted from 1990 through 2012 and were predicted to 2030 using a Bayesian age-period-cohort model.
Globally, esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) and esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC) showed opposing trends between 1990 and 2012; ESCC showed a decreasing trend, with an AAPC of - 1.5 (95% CI - 2.4, - 0.7), yet EAC showed an increasing trend, with an AAPC of 5.2 (95% CI 4.2, 6.2). The increasing trend in EAC was commonly observed in high-income countries. The predicted trend to 2030 indicated that most countries will continue to experience a decreasing trend or a stable trend in esophageal cancer incidence, except Denmark, the Netherlands, and the UK, where the overall esophageal cancer incidence rates, mainly driven by EAC, are predicted to increase.
Decreasing trends in ESCC have been observed worldwide in both low- and middle-income countries and high-income countries, which may have been offset by increasing trends in EAC in high-income countries. The changing patterns of these two main subtypes of esophageal cancer may call for interventions, especially innovative interventions, to address obesity, GERD, and Barrett's esophagus.
我们提供了最新的食管癌症发病率的国际趋势（1990-2012 年）和预测趋势（2013-2030 年）的概述。
我们使用了癌症发病率在五大洲（CI5plus）数据库的数据，该数据库包含按癌症部位、年龄和性别以及相应人群划分的年度发病率数据。计算并绘制了 1990 年至 2012 年每个国家的年龄标准化食管癌症发病率，并使用贝叶斯年龄-时期-队列模型预测到 2030 年。
全球范围内，食管鳞状细胞癌（ESCC）和食管腺癌（EAC）在 1990 年至 2012 年期间呈现出相反的趋势；ESCC 呈下降趋势，年均变化百分比（AAPC）为-1.5（95%置信区间为-2.4，-0.7），而 EAC 呈上升趋势，AAPC 为 5.2（95%置信区间为 4.2，6.2）。EAC 的上升趋势在高收入国家中较为常见。到 2030 年的预测趋势表明，除丹麦、荷兰和英国外，大多数国家的食管癌发病率将继续呈下降趋势或稳定趋势，这主要是由于 EAC 的影响。
在中低收入国家和高收入国家，ESCC 的下降趋势已在全球范围内观察到，而在高收入国家，EAC 的上升趋势可能抵消了 ESCC 的下降趋势。这两种主要食管癌症亚型的变化模式可能需要采取干预措施，特别是创新干预措施，以解决肥胖、胃食管反流病和 Barrett 食管等问题。
