State Key Laboratory for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, National Clinical Research Center for Infectious Diseases, Collaborative Innovation Center for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, The First Affiliated Hospital, College of Medicine, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, China.
Department of Emergency Surgery, Union Hospital, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, China.
Cancer. 2021 Sep 1;127(17):3172-3182. doi: 10.1002/cncr.33628. Epub 2021 May 11.
There is a paucity of global comparative trend analyses of all human papillomavirus (HPV)-attributable cancers. In addition, most analyses by international sources only describe past trends; few studies have projected the future trend of HPV-attributable cancers.
Data were used from the Cancer Incidence in Five Continents (CI5plus) database that contains annual incidence by cancer site, age, and sex, as well as corresponding populations. Age-standardized HPV-attributable cancer incidence rates were calculated and plotted from 1990 through 2012. A Bayesian age-period-cohort model was used to project the HPV-attributable cancer incidence rates of each country up to 2030.
A significant but small decreasing trend worldwide in the HPV-attributable cancer incidence rate was observed with an average annual percent change (AAPC) of -0.3 (95% CI, -0.6 to -0.1). Notably, Uganda had a consistently increasing trend of HPV-attributable cancer incidence rate, with an AAPC of 1.7 (95% CI, 0.6-2.9). U-shaped trends were observed in some high-income countries because of a recent increase in oral cavity and oropharyngeal cancers. Most countries experience a decreasing or stable trend in HPV-attributable cancers incidence rates between 1990 and 2030. However, Japan, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands, Italy, Costa Rica, and Uganda will have an increasing trend during the projection period.
Analyses revealed favorable downward trends in HPV-attributable cancer incidence rates in most of the included countries. However, the persistently increasing trend in HPV-attributable cancer incidence rates in Uganda and the recent increase in oral cavity and oropharyngeal cancer incidence rates in some high-income countries may present a new challenge for global HPV-attributable cancer prevention.
Analyses revealed favorable downward trends in human papillomavirus (HPV)-attributable cancer incidence rates in most of the included countries. However, the persistently increasing trend in HPV-attributable cancer incidence rates in Uganda and the recent increase in oral cavity and oropharyngeal cancer incidence rates in some high-income countries may present a new challenge for global HPV-attributable cancer prevention.
全球范围内针对所有人乳头瘤病毒（HPV）相关癌症的趋势分析相对较少。此外，国际来源的大多数分析仅描述了过去的趋势；很少有研究预测 HPV 相关癌症的未来趋势。
本研究使用了癌症发病率五大陆（CI5plus）数据库的数据，该数据库包含按癌症部位、年龄和性别以及相应人群分类的年度发病率。计算并绘制了 1990 年至 2012 年期间的年龄标准化 HPV 相关癌症发病率。采用贝叶斯年龄-时期-队列模型预测各国至 2030 年的 HPV 相关癌症发病率。
全球 HPV 相关癌症发病率呈显著但较小的下降趋势，年均变化百分比（AAPC）为-0.3（95%CI，-0.6 至-0.1）。值得注意的是，乌干达 HPV 相关癌症发病率呈持续上升趋势，AAPC 为 1.7（95%CI，0.6-2.9）。一些高收入国家出现 U 型趋势，这是由于口腔和口咽癌的近期增加所致。大多数国家在 1990 年至 2030 年期间 HPV 相关癌症发病率呈下降或稳定趋势。然而，日本、英国、荷兰、意大利、哥斯达黎加和乌干达在预测期间将呈上升趋势。
分析显示，大多数纳入国家 HPV 相关癌症发病率呈有利的下降趋势。然而，乌干达 HPV 相关癌症发病率持续上升，以及一些高收入国家口腔和口咽癌发病率的近期上升，可能给全球 HPV 相关癌症预防带来新的挑战。
分析显示，大多数纳入国家 HPV 相关癌症发病率呈有利的下降趋势。然而，乌干达 HPV 相关癌症发病率持续上升，以及一些高收入国家口腔和口咽癌发病率的近期上升，可能给全球 HPV 相关癌症预防带来新的挑战。
