Analysis of the genes controlling cotton fiber length reveals the molecular basis of plant breeding and the genetic potential of current cultivars for continued improvement.

Stagnated crop improvement has raised questions of whether and how current crop cultivars can be further improved. Genes are the core determinants of performance of all cultivars. Here, we report the molecular basis of plant breeding and address these questions by analyzing 226 GFL genes controlling and accurately predicting fiber length, an important breeding objective trait, in cotton (Gossypium sp.). We first identified the favorable allele and the number of favorable alleles (NFAs) of each GFL gene, calculated the total NFAs of the 226 GFL genes accumulated in 198 advanced breeding lines, and analyzed them against fiber lengths. Fiber lengths of the breeding lines were strongly correlated with the total NFAs of the GFL genes (r = 0.85, P < 0.0001), suggesting that accumulation of the favorable alleles of the genes controlling objective traits is the molecular basis of cotton breeding. Surprisingly, a breeding line with a fiber length of present cultivars having the longest fibers contained only about 51% of the total NFAs of the 226 GFL genes. The genetic potentials of current cultivars were then predicted using linear and non-linear models, respectively, revealing that a breeding line or cultivar with a fiber length of 33.8 mm could be further improved in fiber length by up to 118%. Finally, we showed that the genetic potential of such a breeding line can be realized through gene-based breeding. Therefore, these findings shed light on continued crop improvement in general and provide 740 genic biomarkers desirable for enhanced cotton fiber breeding.