Evaluation of management practices on agricultural nonpoint source pollution discharges into the rivers under climate change effects.

In recent years, agricultural non-point source pollution (ANPSP) has become the biggest threat to Aras River water quality by completing the Mughan irrigation and drainage network. Nutrient pollutants, including nitrate and phosphate, released into the river through drains have created a range of obstacles for locals living around the river. Agricultural activities are generally considered the largest source of non-point pollution. They have no complex and uniform impact along the river. Thus, the spatial distribution of ANPS and highly polluted areas should be identified to manage watershed management. This study proposes a simple framework for identifying pollutant-sensitive areas along the river and management strategies to improve water quality. To this aim, the main factors affecting ANPSP were identified, and the effectiveness of the scenarios selected to comply with water quality regulations for drinking and environment during 1993-2007 were simulated. Based on the sensitivity analysis, land use and fertilizer are the main factors affecting river ANPSP. Thus, their changes were modeled in different scenarios. Based on the results, the ANPSP load was higher downstream. The agricultural lands in region 3 were considered the main source of pollution. Comparing the management scenarios showed that the amount of nitrate and phosphate leaching into the river decreased to 18.1 and 8.35 %, respectively, by reducing the consumption of urea and phosphate fertilizers by 50 %. The results help watershed managers implement eco-friendly land use and nutrient management programs at specific locations during specific periods to control ANPSP along the rivers.