He Ping, Li Yunfeng, Huo Tongtong, Meng Fanyun, Peng Cheng, Bai Ming
Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China.
Hebei Province Key Laboratory of Research and Development of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Chengde Medical University, Chengde, China.
Front Plant Sci. 2023 Feb 1;14:1080881. doi: 10.3389/fpls.2023.1080881. eCollection 2023.
Soil pollution by heavy metals and climate change pose substantial threats to the habitat suitability of cash crops. Discussing the suitability of cash crops in this context is necessary for the conservation and management of species. We developed a comprehensive evaluation system that is universally applicable to all plants stressed by heavy metal pollution.
The MaxEnt model was used to simulate the spatial distribution of Hort within the study area (Sichuan, Shaanxi, and Chongqing) based on current and future climate conditions (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5 scenarios). We established the current Cd pollution status in the study area using kriging interpolation and kernel density. Additionally, the three scenarios were used in prediction models to simulate future Cd pollution conditions based on current Cd pollution data. The current and future priority planting areas for were determined by overlay analysis, and two levels of results were obtained.
The results revealed that the current first- and secondary-priority planting areas for were 2.06 ×10 km and 1.64 ×10 km, respectively. Of these areas, the seven primary and twelve secondary counties for current cultivation should be given higher priority; these areas include Meishan, Qionglai, Pujiang, and other regions. Furthermore, all the priority zones based on the current and future scenarios were mainly concentrated on the Chengdu Plain, southeastern Sichuan and northern Chongqing. Future planning results indicated that Renshou, Pingwu, Meishan, Qionglai, Pengshan, and other regions are very important for planting, and a pessimistic scenario will negatively impact this potential planting. The spatial dynamics of priority areas in 2050 and 2070 clearly fluctuated under different prediction scenarios and were mainly distributed in northern Sichuan and western Chongqing.
Given these results, taking reasonable measures to replan and manage these areas is necessary. This study provides. not only a useful reference for the protection and cultivation of , but also a framework for analyzing other cash crops.
重金属土壤污染和气候变化对经济作物的栖息地适宜性构成了重大威胁。在这种背景下讨论经济作物的适宜性对于物种的保护和管理至关重要。我们开发了一个全面的评估系统，该系统普遍适用于所有受重金属污染胁迫的植物。
基于当前和未来气候条件（RCP2.6、RCP4.5、RCP6.0和RCP8.5情景），使用MaxEnt模型模拟研究区域（四川、陕西和重庆）内花椒的空间分布。我们利用克里金插值法和核密度法确定了研究区域内当前的镉污染状况。此外，在预测模型中使用这三种情景，根据当前的镉污染数据模拟未来的镉污染状况。通过叠加分析确定了花椒当前和未来的优先种植区域，并获得了两个层次的结果。
结果显示，花椒当前的一级和二级优先种植区域分别为2.06×10平方千米和1.64×10平方千米。在这些区域中，当前花椒种植的七个主要县和十二个次要县应给予更高的优先级；这些区域包括眉山、邛崃、浦江等地区。此外，基于当前和未来情景的所有优先区域主要集中在成都平原、四川东南部和重庆北部。未来规划结果表明，仁寿、平武、眉山、邛崃、彭山等地区对花椒种植非常重要，而悲观情景将对这种潜在种植产生负面影响。2050年和2070年优先区域的空间动态在不同预测情景下明显波动，主要分布在四川北部和重庆西部。
鉴于这些结果，采取合理措施重新规划和管理这些区域是必要的。本研究不仅为花椒的保护和种植提供了有用的参考，也为分析其他经济作物提供了一个框架。
