Agricultural non-point source pollution and rural transformation in a plain river network: Insights from Jiaxing city, China.

Recently, agricultural non-point source pollution (ANPSP) has gained increasing attention in China. However, using a uniform paradigm to analyze ANPSP in all regions is difficult, considering their geographical, economic, and policy differences. In this study, we adopted the inventory analysis method to estimate the ANPSP of Jiaxing City, Zhejiang Province as a representative region of the plain river network area from 2001 to 2020 and analyzed it in the framework of policies and rural transformation development (RTD). The ANPSP showed an overall decreasing trend over 20 years. Compared to 2001, total nitrogen (TN), total phosphorus (TP), and chemical oxygen demand (COD) decreased by 33.93%, 25.77%, and 43.94%, respectively, in 2020. COD accounted for the largest annual average (67.02%), whereas TP contributed the most to the equivalent emissions (50.9%). The highest contribution of TN, TP, and COD, which fluctuated and decreased over the past 20 years, originated from livestock and poultry farming. However, the contribution of TN and TP from aquaculture increased. The overall trend of RTD and ANPSP showed an inverted "U" shape with time, and the evolution of both showed similar stage characteristics. With the gradual stabilization of RTD, ANPSP successively went through three stages: high-level stabilization (2001-2009), rapid-decreasing (2010-2014), and low-level stabilization (2015-2020). Additionally, the relationships between pollution loads from different agricultural sources and indicators of different dimensions of RTD varied. These findings provide a reference for the governance and planning of ANPSP in the plain river network area and a new perspective for investigating the relationship between rural development and the environment.