School of Economics, Chongqing Technology and Business University, Chongqing, 400067, China.
Department of Actuarial Studies & Business Analytics, Macquarie University, Sydney, NSW, 2109, Australia.
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2021 Feb;28(8):9991-10004. doi: 10.1007/s11356-020-11255-4. Epub 2020 Nov 7.
The development of low-carbon agriculture systems has been a global consensus to reduce carbon emissions in the agricultural sector for addressing climate change challenges. This fact brings the need to study the agricultural carbon emissions (ACEs). Studies focusing on calculating the spatiotemporal changes of ACEs and analyzing the main factors for ACE changes have been conducted. The agricultural technology inputs (ATIs) as an important factor to influence ACEs have been identified. The traditional linear model was the commonly used method to study the relationship between ATIs and ACEs, whereas the impact of ATIs on ACEs in different areas might be complex and nonlinear due to the differences in trade openness causing different development levels of agricultural technologies. Therefore, this study aims to investigate the effect of trade openness on the relationship between ATIs and ACEs using a panel threshold model and put forward policy implications for the low-carbon agriculture development. The analysis was based on data from a panel of 31 provinces of China during 2003-2018. The results show that ATIs and ACEs increased from 2003 to 2018 and the spatial distribution of ATIs was similar to that of ACEs. The ATIs had a positive effect on ACEs with a significant single-threshold effect from trade openness. When the trade openness was below the threshold (0.1425), the positive effect of ATIs on ACEs was significant (coefficient, 0.117), whereas, when the trade openness was above the threshold (0.1425), the positive effect of ATIs on ACEs significantly decreased (coefficient, 0.062). Furthermore, industrial structure and agricultural economic development were the positive drivers of ACEs, while trade openness, education level of rural workers, R&D funding, and natural disasters had negative relationships with ACEs. The results provide valuable references for understanding ACE drivers and developing low-carbon agriculture with the consideration of ATIs and trade openness.
低碳农业系统的发展已成为全球共识，旨在减少农业部门的碳排放，以应对气候变化挑战。这一事实使得研究农业碳排放（ACEs）成为必要。目前已经有研究侧重于计算 ACEs 的时空变化，并分析 ACE 变化的主要因素。农业技术投入（ATIs）作为影响 ACEs 的重要因素已被确定。传统的线性模型是研究 ATIs 与 ACEs 之间关系的常用方法，但由于贸易开放度的差异导致农业技术发展水平不同，ATIs 对 ACEs 的影响可能是复杂和非线性的。因此，本研究旨在利用面板门槛模型研究贸易开放度对 ATIs 与 ACEs 关系的影响，并为低碳农业发展提出政策建议。本研究基于 2003-2018 年中国 31 个省份的面板数据进行分析。结果表明，ATIs 和 ACEs 从 2003 年到 2018 年都有所增加，并且 ATIs 的空间分布与 ACEs 的空间分布相似。ATIs 对 ACEs 有正向影响，贸易开放度具有显著的单门槛效应。当贸易开放度低于门槛值（0.1425）时，ATIs 对 ACEs 的正向影响显著（系数为 0.117），而当贸易开放度高于门槛值（0.1425）时，ATIs 对 ACEs 的正向影响显著降低（系数为 0.062）。此外，产业结构和农业经济发展是 ACEs 的正向驱动因素，而贸易开放度、农村工人教育水平、研发资金和自然灾害与 ACEs 呈负相关关系。研究结果为理解 ACEs 的驱动因素以及在考虑 ATIs 和贸易开放度的情况下发展低碳农业提供了有价值的参考。
