Economics of Brucella ovis control in sheep: epidemiologic simulation model.

The epidemiology and economics of Brucella ovis control in a hypothetical, commercial sheep flock (100 rams and 2,500 ewes) were investigated. The investigation consisted of an epidemiologic simulation model, reported here, and a decision-tree analysis, reported in a companion paper. The epidemiologic model was designed to simulate the transmission and persistence of B ovis in a ram flock during the mating season as well as the nonmating (isolation) season. A constant contact rate was selected for the nonmating season and a varying contact rate was selected for the mating season to reflect changes in numbers of ewes in estrus. These contact rates were used to evaluate all possible combinations of 5 control alternatives for flock infection rates ranging from 0% to 38%. Vaccination was found to be more effective as a control strategy when the prevalence of flock infection was high (greater than 15%); however, it did not substantially reduce B ovis transmission when the prevalence of flock infection was low (less than 10%). The effect of increasing vaccine efficacy from 40% to 80% had minimal effect on incidence of new cases. The speed with which B ovis could be eradicated depended on the initial prevalence of infection and the screening tests used (palpation, semen testing for leukocytes, and ELISA). All combinations of screening tests verified the usefulness of palpation. Simulation model results indicated that it may be feasible to eradicate B ovis from flocks with moderate to high (10% to 38%) prevalence of infection by culling on the basis of 2 sequential tests.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)