Zhu Zhu, Zheng Hang, Zhu Zhu
Business School, Nanjing University, Nanjing, China.
School of Economics, Shanghai University, Shanghai, China.
Environ Dev Sustain. 2022;24(1):180-203. doi: 10.1007/s10668-021-01390-4. Epub 2021 Jun 2.
Based on the theory of trade added value, this paper discusses the potential actual trade scale and benefit damage degree of the two countries under the background of big country game by measuring the real trade scale of China and the USA, simulating the economic impact of tariffs imposed by China and the USA and utilizing Wang-Wei-Zhu (WWZ) method to decompose the potential changes in Sino-US trade. The results show that: firstly, the size of China-US trade in terms of total value is significantly overestimated and China's overall trade with the USA in 2001-2014 was overestimated by an average of 3.06 percent, of which goods trade was overestimated by 8.06 percent. Secondly, although tariff increases can reduce the degree of trade imbalance between China and the USA to some extent, the adverse effects are mutual and global, and the European Union, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), Japan and Canada become the main transfer countries of Sino-US trade. Thirdly, the pattern of China's final exports and the US' intermediate exports determines that China's trade interests are more damaged than those of the USA. It is proved that there is a big gap between China and the USA in the depth and breadth of China's participation in the value chain division of labor and the trade scale measured by Gross Domestic Product is more instructive than the total value.
基于贸易增加值理论，本文通过测算中美实际贸易规模、模拟中美加征关税的经济影响以及运用王-魏-朱（WWZ）方法分解中美贸易潜在变化，探讨大国博弈背景下两国潜在的实际贸易规模及利益受损程度。研究结果表明：其一，中美贸易总值规模被显著高估，2001—2014年中国与美国的整体贸易平均高估了3.06%，其中货物贸易高估了8.06%。其二，虽然加征关税能在一定程度上降低中美贸易失衡程度，但负面影响是相互且全球性的，欧盟、东盟、日本和加拿大成为中美贸易的主要转移国。其三，中国最终品出口和美国中间品出口的格局决定了中国的贸易利益受损程度大于美国。研究证明，中国在参与价值链分工的深度和广度上与美国存在较大差距，用国内生产总值衡量的贸易规模比贸易总值更具指导意义。
