BODE3 Team and ASPIRE2025, University of Otago, Wellington, New Zealand.
ASPIRE2025, University of Otago, Wellington, New Zealand.
N Z Med J. 2022 Jan 21;135(1548):65-76.
To provide preliminary high-level modelling estimates of the impact of denicotinisation of tobacco on changes in smoking prevalence in Aotearoa New Zealand relative to the New Zealand Government's Smokefree 2025 goal.
An Excel spreadsheet was populated with smoking and vaping prevalence data from the New Zealand Health Survey and we projected business-as-usual trends. Using various parameters from the literature (New Zealand trial data, New Zealand EASE-ITC Study results), we modelled the potential impact of denicotinisation of tobacco (with no other tobacco permitted for sale) out to 2025. In addition to the base case (considered most likely), Scenario 1 used estimates from a published expert knowledge elicitation process, and Scenario 2 considered the addition of extra mass-media campaign and Quitline support to the base case.
With the denicotinisation intervention, adult daily smoking prevalences were estimated to decline to under 5% by 2025 for the European/Other ethnic grouping (in the base case and both scenarios) and in one scenario (Scenario 1) for Māori (2.5%). However, prevalence did not fall below 5% in the base case for Māori (7.7%) or in Scenario 2 (5.2%). In the base case, vaping was estimated to increase to 7.9% in the adult population by 2025, and up to 10.7% in one scenario (Scenario 1).
This preliminary high-level modelling suggests that mandated denicotinisation has a plausible chance of achieving the New Zealand Government's Smokefree 2025 goal. The probability of success would increase if supplemented with interventions such as mass-media campaigns offering Quitline support (especially if predominantly designed for a Māori audience). Nevertheless, there is much uncertainty with these results and more sophisticated modelling is forthcoming.
提供初步的高水平建模估计，以了解在新西兰，相对于新西兰政府的无烟 2025 目标，去尼古丁化烟草对吸烟率变化的影响。
我们使用来自新西兰健康调查的吸烟和电子烟使用流行率数据填充了 Excel 电子表格，并对常规趋势进行了预测。使用文献中的各种参数（新西兰试验数据、新西兰 EASE-ITC 研究结果），我们对 2025 年前去尼古丁化烟草（不允许销售其他烟草制品）的潜在影响进行了建模。除了基本情况（被认为最有可能）之外，情景 1 使用了已发表的专家知识启发过程的估计值，情景 2 则考虑了在基本情况基础上增加额外的大众媒体宣传活动和戒烟热线支持。
在去尼古丁化干预措施下，到 2025 年，欧洲/其他族裔群体的成年人每日吸烟率估计将下降到 5%以下（在基本情况和两个情景中），在一个情景中（情景 1）毛利人（2.5%）也是如此。然而，在基本情况中，毛利人（7.7%）或情景 2（5.2%）的吸烟率都没有下降到 5%以下。在基本情况中，到 2025 年，电子烟在成年人中的使用估计将增加到 7.9%，在一个情景中（情景 1）增加到 10.7%。
这项初步的高水平建模表明，强制去尼古丁化有可能实现新西兰政府的无烟 2025 目标。如果辅以大众媒体宣传活动提供戒烟热线支持等干预措施（特别是如果主要针对毛利人受众设计），成功的可能性会增加。然而，这些结果存在很大的不确定性，即将进行更复杂的建模。
