Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Response in the Yangtze-Huaihe River Basin, School of Geography and Tourism, Anhui Normal University, Wuhu 241002, China.
Hefei Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Hefei 230022, China.
Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2022 Jun 17;19(12):7451. doi: 10.3390/ijerph19127451.
This study aims to analyze the spatiotemporal distribution and evolution of digestive tract cancer (DTC) in Lujiang County, China by using the geographic information system technology. Results of this study are expected to provide a scientific basis for effective prevention and control of DTC. The data on DTC cases in Lujiang County, China, were downloaded from the Data Center of the Center for Disease Control and Prevention in Hefei, Anhui Province, China, while the demographic data were sourced from the demographic department in China. Systematic statistical analyses, including the spatial empirical Bayes smoothing, spatial autocorrelation, hotspot statistics, and Kulldorff's retrospective space-time scan, were used to identify the spatial and spatiotemporal clusters of DTC. GM(1,1) and standard deviation ellipses were then applied to predict the future evolution of the spatial pattern of the DTC cases in Lujiang County. The results showed that DTC in Lujiang County had obvious spatiotemporal clustering. The spatial distribution of DTC cases increases gradually from east to west in the county in a stepwise pattern. The peak of DTC cases occurred in 2012-2013, and the high-case spatial clusters were located mainly in the northwest of Lujiang County. At the 99% confidence interval, two spatiotemporal clusters were identified. From 2012 to 2017, the cases of DTC in Lujiang County gradually shifted to the high-incidence area in the northwest, and the spatial distribution range experienced a process of "dispersion-clustering". The cases of DTC in Lujiang County will continue to move to the northwest from 2018 to 2025, and the predicted spatial clustering tends to be more obvious.
本研究旨在利用地理信息系统技术分析中国庐江县消化道癌（DTC）的时空分布和演变。本研究的结果有望为有效预防和控制 DTC 提供科学依据。中国庐江县的 DTC 病例数据从中国安徽省合肥市疾病预防控制中心的数据中心下载，而人口数据则来自中国人口部门。使用系统统计分析，包括空间经验贝叶斯平滑、空间自相关、热点统计和 Kulldorff 的回顾性时空扫描，来识别 DTC 的空间和时空聚类。然后应用 GM(1,1)和标准差椭圆来预测庐江县 DTC 病例空间格局的未来演变。结果表明，庐江县的 DTC 具有明显的时空聚集性。该县的 DTC 病例的空间分布呈逐步从东至西递增的模式。DTC 病例的高峰出现在 2012-2013 年，高病例的空间聚类主要位于庐江县的西北部。在 99%的置信区间内，确定了两个时空聚类。从 2012 年到 2017 年，庐江县的 DTC 病例逐渐向西北部的高发区转移，空间分布范围经历了“分散-聚集”的过程。从 2018 年到 2025 年，庐江县的 DTC 病例将继续向西北部转移，预测的空间聚类趋势将更加明显。
