Yu Weijun, Guo Lining, Shen Xiulian, Wang Zijiang, Cai Jian, Liu Huihui, Mao Lingling, Yao Wenqing, Sun Yingwei
Institute for Prevention and Control of Infection and Infectious Diseases, Liaoning Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, No.168, Jin Feng Street, Shenyang, Liaoning 110172, China.
Hunnan District Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Shenyang, Liaoning 110015, China.
Acta Trop. 2023 Sep;245:106968. doi: 10.1016/j.actatropica.2023.106968. Epub 2023 Jun 11.
To explore the epidemiological characteristics and spatiotemporal distribution of scarlet fever in Liaoning Province, which could provide scientific evidence for the formulation and improvement of prevention and control strategies and measures.
Data on scarlet fever cases and population were obtained from the China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention in Liaoning Province between 2010 and 2019. We examined the spatial and spatiotemporal clusters of scarlet fever across Liaoning Province using the Moran's I, local indicators of spatial association, local Gi* hotspot statistics, and Kulldorff's retrospective space-time scan statistical analysis.
Between 1 January 2010 and 31 December 2019, 46,652 cases of scarlet fever were reported in Liaoning Province, with an annual average incidence of 10.67 per 100,000. The incidence of scarlet fever had obvious seasonality with high incidence in early summer June and early winter December. The male-to-female ratio was 1.53:1. The highest incidence of cases occurred in 3-9 year old children. The most likely spatiotemporal cluster and the secondary clusters were detected in urban regions of Shenyang and Dalian, Liaoning Province.
The incidence of scarlet fever has obvious spatiotemporal clustering, with the high-risk areas mainly concentrated in urban area of Shenyang and Dalian, Liaoning Province. Control strategies need to focus on high-risk season, high-risk areas and high-risk populations in order to reduce the incidence of scarlet fever.
探讨辽宁省猩红热的流行病学特征及时空分布情况，为防控策略和措施的制定与完善提供科学依据。
获取2010年至2019年辽宁省疾病预防控制信息系统中的猩红热病例及人口数据。运用莫兰指数（Moran's I）、局部空间自相关指标、局部Gi*热点统计法以及Kulldorff回顾性时空扫描统计分析，研究辽宁省猩红热的空间及时空聚集情况。
2010年1月1日至2019年12月31日，辽宁省共报告猩红热病例46652例，年平均发病率为十万分之10.67。猩红热发病率具有明显季节性，在初夏6月和初冬12月发病率较高。男女比例为1.53∶1。病例发病率最高的是3至9岁儿童。在辽宁省沈阳和大连的城区检测到最可能的时空聚集区及次聚集区。
猩红热发病率具有明显的时空聚集性，高危地区主要集中在辽宁省沈阳和大连的城区。防控策略需聚焦高危季节、高危地区和高危人群，以降低猩红热发病率。
