埃塞俄比亚南方各族州民族人民区域（SNNPR）治疗中心收治的新冠肺炎患者的康复时间及其预测因素：多中心回顾性队列研究

Time to Recovery from Covid-19 and Its Predictors Among Patients Admitted to Treatment Centers of Southern Nations Nationalities and Peoples Region (SNNPR), ETHIOPIA: Multi-Center Retrospective Cohort Study.

作者信息

Lemma Tirore Lire, Abose Nadamo Selamu, Tamrat Derilo Habtamu, Erkalo Desta, Sedore Tagesse, Tadesse Tegegn, Ermias Dejene, Yaekob Temesgen

机构信息

Department of Public Health, Wachemo University, Hossana, Ethiopia.

Department of Midwifery, Wachemo University, Hossana, Ethiopia.

出版信息

Infect Drug Resist. 2022 Jun 16;15:3047-3062. doi: 10.2147/IDR.S365986. eCollection 2022.

BACKGROUND

The world is currently facing a pandemic of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (Covid-19). It has caused significant morbidity and mortality. So far little is known about recovery time (prolonged hospital stay) from Covid-19 and its determinants in Ethiopia as well as in the study area. Therefore, the aim of this study was to determine time to recovery from Covid-19, and identify predictors of time to recovery among patients admitted to treatment centers of Southern Nations Nationalities and Peoples Region (SNNPR).

METHODS AND MATERIALS

A facility-based retrospective cohort study was conducted among Covid-19 patients admitted to care centers of SNNPR from May 30, 2020 to October 15, 2021. A sample of 845 patients was included in the study. Summarization of the data was done using mean (standard deviation) and median (inter quartile range). Kaplan-Meier Survival Curve was used to estimate recovery time from Covid-19 and the independent effects of covariates on recovery time was analyzed using multivariable Cox-proportional hazard model.

RESULTS

The incidence density of recovery was 8.24 per 100 person-days (95% CI: 7.67, 8.85). The overall median recovery time was 10 days (IQR: 8-16 days). Critical stage of Covid-19 (aHR = 0.19, 95% CI: 0.12, 0.29), severe stage of Covid-19 (aHR = 0.40, 95% CI: 0.29, 0.56), mechanical ventilation (aHR = 0.20, 95% CI: 0.073, 0.56) and treatment center (aHR = 0.68, 95% CI: 0.51, 0.90) were significant predictors of recovery rate among Covid-19 patients.

CONCLUSION

The median time to recovery from Covid-19 was relatively short. The incidence density of recovery was 8.24 per 100 person-days. The hazard of recovery was lower for patients at higher levels of Covid-19 severity and for patients in need of mechanical ventilation. Early identification of severity levels of the patients is required at the time of admission. Special attention, critical follow-up and management is warranted for patients at higher levels of Covid-19 severity.

背景

目前全球正面临2019冠状病毒病（新冠肺炎）大流行。它已导致了显著的发病率和死亡率。到目前为止，在埃塞俄比亚以及研究地区，对于新冠肺炎康复时间（住院时间延长）及其决定因素知之甚少。因此，本研究的目的是确定新冠肺炎的康复时间，并确定在南方各族人民地区（SNNPR）治疗中心住院的患者中康复时间的预测因素。

方法和材料

对2020年5月30日至2021年10月15日期间在SNNPR护理中心住院的新冠肺炎患者进行了一项基于机构的回顾性队列研究。845名患者被纳入研究。数据汇总采用均值（标准差）和中位数（四分位间距）。采用Kaplan-Meier生存曲线估计新冠肺炎的康复时间，并使用多变量Cox比例风险模型分析协变量对康复时间的独立影响。

结果

康复的发病密度为每100人日8.24例（95%置信区间：7.67，8.85）。总体中位康复时间为10天（四分位间距：8 - 16天）。新冠肺炎危重症期（调整后风险比 = 0.19，95%置信区间：0.12，0.29）、新冠肺炎重症期（调整后风险比 = 0.40，95%置信区间：0.29，0.56）、机械通气（调整后风险比 = 0.20，95%置信区间：0.073，0.56）和治疗中心（调整后风险比 = 0.68，95%置信区间：0.51，0.90）是新冠肺炎患者康复率的显著预测因素。