Glover Andrew, Heathcote Jonathan, Krueger Dirk
Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, USA.
Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis and CEPR, USA.
J Econ Dyn Control. 2022 Jul;140:104306. doi: 10.1016/j.jedc.2022.104306. Epub 2022 Jun 21.
In this paper we ask how to best allocate a given time-varying supply of vaccines during the second phase of the Covid-19 pandemic across individuals of different ages. Building on our previous heterogeneous household model of optimal economic mitigation and redistribution (Glover et al., 2021) we contrast the actual vaccine deployment path that prioritized older, retired individuals with one that first vaccinates younger workers. Vaccinating the old first saves more lives but slows the economic recovery, relative to inoculating the young first. Vaccines deliver large welfare benefits in both scenarios (relative to a world without vaccines), but the old-first policy is optimal under a utilitarian social welfare function. The welfare gains from having vaccinated the old first are especially significant once the economy is hit by a more infectious Delta variant in the summer of 2021.
在本文中，我们探讨在新冠疫情第二阶段，如何在不同年龄段的个体之间最佳分配随时间变化的疫苗供应。基于我们之前关于最优经济缓解和再分配的异质性家庭模型（格洛弗等人，2021年），我们将优先为年长退休个体接种疫苗的实际疫苗部署路径与首先为年轻工人接种疫苗的路径进行对比。相对于首先为年轻人接种疫苗，首先为老年人接种疫苗能挽救更多生命，但会减缓经济复苏。在两种情况下（相对于没有疫苗的世界），疫苗都带来了巨大的福利收益，但在功利主义社会福利函数下，先为老年人接种疫苗的政策是最优的。一旦经济在2021年夏季受到传染性更强的德尔塔变种的冲击，首先为老年人接种疫苗所带来的福利收益就会尤为显著。
