Tsai I-Chun
Department of Finance, National University of Kaohsiung, Kaohsiung, Taiwan.
Anfu Institute for Financial Engineering, National Tsing Hua University, Hsin Chun, Taiwan.
J Behav Exp Finance. 2022 Sep;35:100698. doi: 10.1016/j.jbef.2022.100698. Epub 2022 Jun 17.
This paper explores changes in social behavior since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, which are characterized by reduction in relocation, mobility, and community engagement, and how the correlations between regional housing markets are affected by these changes. Because changes in mobility and engagement are the most apparent in large cities, the present study calculates the independence indicator of regional housing markets in the 50 largest metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) in the United States and determines their relationship with Mobility and Engagement Index values. The empirical results show that as mobility and community engagement decline in a certain area, housing market fluctuations become more independent, indicating correlations between regional housing markets in the US might decrease after the COVID-19 outbreak. This paper also finds that there are more MSAs having significantly decreased in volatility since the outbreak of the pandemic. This paper provides evidence indicating that housing markets may be impacted differently by the COVID-19 pandemic than other asset markets, particularly stock markets. Changes in mobility and engagement can be used as an indicator to assess whether the correlation between regional housing markets would decline, which means that, compared with financial instruments, more factors from real aspects need to be considered when determining the changes in real estate affected by the epidemic.
本文探讨了自新冠疫情爆发以来社会行为的变化，其特点是迁移、流动性和社区参与度降低，以及这些变化如何影响区域住房市场之间的相关性。由于流动性和参与度的变化在大城市最为明显，本研究计算了美国50个最大都市统计区（MSA）的区域住房市场独立性指标，并确定它们与流动性和参与度指数值之间的关系。实证结果表明，随着某一地区的流动性和社区参与度下降，住房市场波动变得更加独立，这表明新冠疫情爆发后，美国区域住房市场之间的相关性可能会降低。本文还发现，自疫情爆发以来，有更多的都市统计区波动性显著下降。本文提供的证据表明，新冠疫情对住房市场的影响可能与其他资产市场，特别是股票市场不同。流动性和参与度的变化可以作为评估区域住房市场之间相关性是否会下降的一个指标，这意味着，与金融工具相比，在确定受疫情影响的房地产变化时，需要考虑更多来自实际方面的因素。
