Yuan Yiran, Li Ning
College of Science, Northeastern University, Shenyang 110819, Liaoning, China.
Physica A. 2022 Oct 1;603:127804. doi: 10.1016/j.physa.2022.127804. Epub 2022 Jun 22.
This paper is focused on the design of optimal control strategies for COVID-19 and the model containing susceptible individuals with awareness of protection and susceptible individuals without awareness of protection is established. The goal of this paper is to minimize the number of infected people and susceptible individuals without protection awareness, and to increase the willingness of susceptible individuals to take protection measures. We conduct a qualitative analysis of this mathematical model. Based on the sensitivity analysis, the optimal control method is proposed, namely personal protective measures, vaccination and awareness raising programs. It is found that combining the three methods can minimize the number of infected people. Moreover, the introduction of awareness raising program in society will greatly reduce the existence of susceptible individuals without protection awareness. To evaluate the most cost-effective strategy we performed a cost-effectiveness analysis using the ICER method.
本文聚焦于新冠疫情的最优控制策略设计，建立了包含有防护意识的易感个体和无防护意识的易感个体的模型。本文的目标是尽量减少感染者和无防护意识的易感个体数量，并提高易感个体采取防护措施的意愿。我们对该数学模型进行了定性分析。基于敏感性分析，提出了最优控制方法，即个人防护措施、疫苗接种和提高意识计划。研究发现，将这三种方法结合起来可以使感染者数量最小化。此外，在社会中引入提高意识计划将大大减少无防护意识的易感个体的存在。为了评估最具成本效益的策略，我们使用增量成本效果比（ICER）方法进行了成本效益分析。
