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COVID-19 的全球分析与最优控制模型。

Global Analysis and Optimal Control Model of COVID-19.

机构信息

Deparment of Mathematics and Information Technology, Valley View University, Ghana.

Department of Agriculture Economics, Agribusiness and Extension, University of Energy and Natural Resources, Ghana.

出版信息

Comput Math Methods Med. 2022 Jan 27;2022:9491847. doi: 10.1155/2022/9491847. eCollection 2022.

Abstract

COVID-19 remains the concern of the globe as governments struggle to defeat the pandemic. Understanding the dynamics of the epidemic is as important as detecting and treatment of infected individuals. Mathematical models play a crucial role in exploring the dynamics of the outbreak by deducing strategies paramount for curtailing the disease. The research extensively studies the SEQIAHR compartmental model of COVID-19 to provide insight into the dynamics of the disease by underlying tailored strategies designed to minimize the pandemic. We first studied the noncontrol model's dynamic behaviour by calculating the reproduction number and examining the two nonnegative equilibria' existence. The model utilizes the Castillo-Chavez method and Lyapunov function to investigate the global stability of the disease at the disease-free and endemic equilibrium. Sensitivity analysis was carried on to determine the impact of some parameters on . We further examined the COVID model to determine the type of bifurcation that it exhibits. To help contain the spread of the disease, we formulated a new SEQIAHR compartmental optimal control model with time-dependent controls: personal protection and vaccination of the susceptible individuals. We solved it by utilizing Pontryagin's maximum principle after studying the dynamical behaviour of the noncontrol model. We solved the model numerically by considering different simulation controls' pairing and examined their effectiveness.

摘要

COVID-19 仍然是全球关注的焦点,各国政府正在努力战胜这一大流行病。了解疫情的动态与检测和治疗感染个体同样重要。数学模型通过推断对于遏制疾病至关重要的策略,在探索疫情动态方面发挥着关键作用。该研究通过深入研究 COVID-19 的 SEQIAHR compartmental 模型,提供了对疾病动态的深入了解,并制定了量身定制的策略来最大程度地减少大流行。我们首先通过计算繁殖数并检查两个非负平衡点的存在,研究了非控制模型的动态行为。该模型利用 Castillo-Chavez 方法和 Lyapunov 函数来研究无病和地方病平衡点的疾病全局稳定性。进行了敏感性分析以确定某些参数对的影响。我们进一步研究了 COVID 模型以确定其表现出的分岔类型。为了帮助控制疾病的传播,我们制定了一个新的具有时间依赖性控制的 SEQIAHR compartmental 最优控制模型:个人保护和易感人群的疫苗接种。在研究了非控制模型的动态行为后,我们利用庞特里亚金极大值原理来解决这个问题。我们通过考虑不同的模拟控制配对来数值求解该模型,并检验了它们的有效性。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/569c/8813235/0a58b31ee67b/CMMM2022-9491847.001.jpg

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