Department of Mathematics, Government M.G.M. P.G. College, Itarsi, 461111, India.
CONACyT-Tecnológico Nacional de México/CENIDET, Interior Internado Palmira S/N, Col. Palmira, C.P. 62490, Cuernavaca Morelos, Mexico.
Comput Biol Med. 2022 Jun;145:105518. doi: 10.1016/j.compbiomed.2022.105518. Epub 2022 Apr 14.
The range of effectiveness of the novel corona virus, known as COVID-19, has been continuously spread worldwide with the severity of associated disease and effective variation in the rate of contact. This paper investigates the COVID-19 virus dynamics among the human population with the prediction of the size of epidemic and spreading time. Corona virus disease was first diagnosed on January 30, 2020 in India. From January 30, 2020 to April 21, 2020, the number of patients was continuously increased. In this scientific work, our main objective is to estimate the effectiveness of various preventive tools adopted for COVID-19. The COVID-19 dynamics is formulated in which the parameters of interactions between people, contact tracing, and average latent time are included. Experimental data are collected from April 15, 2020 to April 21, 2020 in India to investigate this virus dynamics. The Genocchi collocation technique is applied to investigate the proposed fractional mathematical model numerically via Caputo-Fabrizio fractional derivative. The effect of presence of various COVID parameters e.g. quarantine time is also presented in the work. The accuracy and efficiency of the outputs of the present work are demonstrated through the pictorial presentation by comparing it to known statistical data. The real data for COVID-19 in India is compared with the numerical results obtained from the concerned COVID-19 model. From our results, to control the expansion of this virus, various prevention measures must be adapted such as self-quarantine, social distancing, and lockdown procedures.
新型冠状病毒（COVID-19）的有效性范围在全球范围内不断传播，其相关疾病的严重程度和接触率的有效变化也在不断变化。本文通过对传染病规模和传播时间的预测，研究了人群中 COVID-19 病毒的动力学。2020 年 1 月 30 日在印度首次诊断出冠状病毒病。从 2020 年 1 月 30 日到 2020 年 4 月 21 日，患者数量不断增加。在这项科学工作中，我们的主要目标是估计为 COVID-19 采用的各种预防工具的有效性。COVID-19 动力学是通过包含人与人之间的相互作用、接触追踪和平均潜伏时间的参数来制定的。从 2020 年 4 月 15 日到 2020 年 4 月 21 日，在印度收集了实验数据来研究这种病毒动力学。通过应用遗传配置技术和 Caputo-Fabrizio 分数导数，对所提出的分数数学模型进行数值研究。工作中还提出了各种 COVID 参数的存在，例如检疫时间的影响。通过与已知统计数据进行比较，通过图形表示展示了本工作输出的准确性和效率。印度的 COVID-19 实际数据与有关 COVID-19 模型得出的数值结果进行了比较。从我们的结果来看，为了控制这种病毒的传播，必须采取各种预防措施，如自我隔离、社会隔离和封锁程序。
