Health Workforce department, World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland
Health Workforce department, World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland.
BMJ Glob Health. 2022 Jun;7(6). doi: 10.1136/bmjgh-2022-009316.
The 2016 Global Strategy on Human Resources for Health: Workforce 2030 projected a global shortage of 18 million health workers by 2030. This article provides an assessment of the health workforce stock in 2020 and presents a revised estimate of the projected shortage by 2030.
Latest data reported through WHO's National Health Workforce Accounts (NHWA) were extracted to assess health workforce stock for 2020. Using a stock and flow model, projections were computed for the year 2030. The global health workforce shortage estimation was revised.
In 2020, the global workforce stock was 29.1 million nurses, 12.7 million medical doctors, 3.7 million pharmacists, 2.5 million dentists, 2.2 million midwives and 14.9 million additional occupations, tallying to 65.1 million health workers. It was not equitably distributed with a 6.5-fold difference in density between high-income and low-income countries. The projected health workforce size by 2030 is 84 million health workers. This represents an average growth of 29% from 2020 to 2030 which is faster than the population growth rate (9.7%). This reassessment presents a revised global health workforce shortage of 15 million health workers in 2020 decreasing to 10 million health workers by 2030 (a 33% decrease globally). WHO African and Eastern Mediterranean regions' shortages are projected to decrease by only 7% and 15%, respectively.
The latest NHWA data show progress in the increasing size of the health workforce globally as more jobs are and will continue to be created in the health economy. It however masks considerable inequities, particularly in WHO African and Eastern Mediterranean regions, and alarmingly among the 47 countries on the WHO Support and Safeguards List. Progress should be acknowledged with caution considering the immeasurable impact of COVID-19 pandemic on health workers globally.
2016 年全球卫生人力资源战略：卫生人力 2030 规划预测，到 2030 年全球将短缺 1800 万名卫生工作者。本文评估了 2020 年卫生人力存量，并对 2030 年的预计短缺情况进行了修订估计。
通过世卫组织国家卫生人力账户（NHWA）最新报告的数据，评估 2020 年卫生人力存量。利用存量和流量模型，计算了 2030 年的预测。对全球卫生人力短缺估计进行了修订。
2020 年，全球劳动力存量为 2910 万名护士、1270 万名医生、370 万名药剂师、250 万名牙医、220 万名助产士和 1490 万名其他职业，总计 6510 万名卫生工作者。这一数字分布不均，高收入和低收入国家之间的密度差异高达 6.5 倍。到 2030 年，预计卫生工作者人数将达到 8400 万人。这意味着从 2020 年到 2030 年，卫生工作者人数将平均增长 29%，这一增长率快于人口增长率（9.7%）。这一重新评估显示，2020 年全球卫生人力短缺 1500 万人，到 2030 年将减少至 1000 万人（全球减少 33%）。世卫组织非洲和东地中海区域的短缺预计将分别减少 7%和 15%。
最新的 NHWA 数据显示，随着卫生经济中创造了更多的就业机会，全球卫生劳动力规模不断扩大。然而，这掩盖了相当大的不平等，特别是在世卫组织非洲和东地中海区域，以及世卫组织支持和保障名单上的 47 个国家中，情况尤其严重。考虑到全球大流行对卫生工作者的影响无法衡量，应该谨慎地承认这一进展。
