Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, New York, New York, United States of America.
Division of International Epidemiology and Population Studies, Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, Maryland, United States of America.
PLoS Pathog. 2022 Jun 30;18(6):e1010591. doi: 10.1371/journal.ppat.1010591. eCollection 2022 Jun.
In this review, we discuss the epidemiological dynamics of different viral infections to project how the transition from a pandemic to endemic Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) might take shape. Drawing from theories of disease invasion and transmission dynamics, waning immunity in the face of viral evolution and antigenic drift, and empirical data from influenza, dengue, and seasonal coronaviruses, we discuss the putative periodicity, severity, and age dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 as it becomes endemic. We review recent studies on SARS-CoV-2 epidemiology, immunology, and evolution that are particularly useful in projecting the transition to endemicity and highlight gaps that warrant further research.
在这篇综述中，我们讨论了不同病毒感染的流行病学动态，以预测从大流行向严重急性呼吸系统综合征冠状病毒 2（SARS-CoV-2）流行的转变可能会如何形成。借鉴疾病入侵和传播动力学理论、面对病毒进化和抗原漂移时免疫力的减弱，以及流感、登革热和季节性冠状病毒的经验数据，我们讨论了 SARS-CoV-2 成为流行时的推测周期性、严重程度和年龄动态。我们回顾了最近关于 SARS-CoV-2 流行病学、免疫学和进化的研究，这些研究对于预测向流行的转变特别有用，并强调了需要进一步研究的差距。
