Development and Validation of a Nomogram for Predicting the Risk of Bell's Stage II/III Necrotizing Enterocolitis in Neonates Compared to Bell's Stage I.

BACKGROUND

Patients with Bell's Stage II/III necrotizing enterocolitis (NEC) may have more severe presentations, higher rates of death, and more long-term complications than those with Bell's Stage I NEC, so the purpose of this article was to construct a nomogram model to distinguish Bell's stage II/III NEC early from Bell's Stage I NEC, which is critical in the clinical management of NEC.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

A total of 730 NEC newborns diagnosed from January 2015 to January 2021 were retrospectively studied. They were randomly divided into training and validation groups at the ratio of 7:3. A nomogram model for predicting NEC was developed based on all the independent risk factors by multivariate regression analysis. The model's performance was mainly evaluated through three aspects: the area under the curve (AUC) to verify discrimination, the Hosmer-Lemeshow test and calibration curve to validate the consistency, and decision curve analysis (DCA) to determine the clinical effectiveness.

RESULTS

Predictors included in the prediction model were gestational age (GA), birth weight (BW), asphyxia, septicemia, hypoglycemia, and patent ductus arteriosus (PDA). This nomogram model containing the above-mentioned six risk factors had good discrimination ability in both groups, and the AUCs were 0.853 (95% CI, 0.82-0.89) and 0.846 (95% CI, 0.79-0.90), respectively. The calibration curve and DCA confirmed that the nomogram had good consistency and clinical usefulness.

CONCLUSIONS

This individual prediction nomogram based on GA, BW, asphyxia, septicemia, hypoglycemia, and PDA served as a useful tool to risk-stratify patients with NEC, and can help neonatologists early distinguish Bell's stage II/III NEC early from Bell's Stage I NEC.