Universidad Nacional de Córdoba, Facultad de Ciencias Médicas, Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas, Instituto de Investigaciones en Ciencias de la Salud - Provincia de Córdoba, Argentina.
Universidad Nacional de Córdoba, Facultad de Ciencias Médicas, Escuela de Nutrición, Estadística y Bioestadística - Provincia de Córdoba, Argentina.
Rev Bras Epidemiol. 2022 Jul 4;25:e220018. doi: 10.1590/1980-549720220018. eCollection 2022.
To assess the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on mortality in Argentina, considering temporal trends in life expectancy at birth and premature mortality rate during 2010-2020.
Based on demographic projections, this ecological time-series study compares a "normal" versus a "COVID-19" mortality scenario for 2020 over a set of 11 Argentine provinces. Annual life expectancy at birth and age-standardized rates of premature mortality were estimated from 2010 to 2020. Joinpoint regression and multilevel models were used.
A potential reduction in life expectancy at birth (a gap between scenarios >1 year) was observed. A significant (negative) point of inflection in temporal trends was identified for the country and most of the provinces, under the COVID-19 mortality scenario. However, our findings reveal disparities between provinces in the estimated life expectancy reduction toward 2020 (values range from -0.63 to -1.85 year in females and up to -2.55 years in males). While men showed more accentuated declines in life expectancy at birth in 2020 (a national gap between scenarios of -1.47 year in men vs. -1.35 year in women), women experienced more unfavorable temporal trends of premature mortality. In the absence of COVID-19, an improvement in both indicators was estimated toward 2020 in both sexes, while a return to levels reported in the past was observed under the COVID-19 scenario.
The COVID-19 pandemic might seriously affect the trends of mortality and exacerbate health disadvantages in Argentina. A temporal and contextual perspective of health inequities merits special attention in the COVID-19 research.
评估 COVID-19 大流行对阿根廷死亡率的影响，考虑 2010-2020 年期间出生时预期寿命和过早死亡率的时间趋势。
基于人口预测，本生态时间序列研究将 2020 年的“正常”与“COVID-19”死亡率情景进行了比较，涉及阿根廷的 11 个省份。从 2010 年到 2020 年，估计了出生时的预期寿命和年龄标准化的过早死亡率。使用 Joinpoint 回归和多层次模型。
观察到出生时预期寿命（情景之间的差距>1 年）潜在减少。在 COVID-19 死亡率情景下，国家和大多数省份的时间趋势都出现了显著（负）拐点。然而，我们的研究结果显示，到 2020 年，各省估计的预期寿命减少存在差异（女性的数值范围为-0.63 至-1.85 年，男性高达-2.55 年）。虽然男性在 2020 年出生时预期寿命下降更为明显（男性情景之间的差距为-1.47 年，女性为-1.35 年），但女性过早死亡率的时间趋势更为不利。如果没有 COVID-19，预计这两个指标在 2020 年都将有所改善，而在 COVID-19 情景下，情况将恢复到过去报告的水平。
COVID-19 大流行可能严重影响阿根廷的死亡率趋势，并加剧健康不平等。在 COVID-19 研究中，需要特别关注健康不平等的时间和背景视角。
