Mariani Javier, Macchia Alejandro
Servicio de Cardiología, Hospital de Alta Complejidad El Cruce, Florencio Varela, Buenos Aires, Argentina. E-mail:
Fundación GESICA, Buenos Aires, Argentina.
Medicina (B Aires). 2024;84(4):708-716.
Reports of excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic in Argentina have been partial and fragmented so far. This study aimed to quantify excess deaths and explore their demographic, temporal, and geographic distribution during the period 2020-2022. Using data from 1 192 963 death records from vital statistics and population projections, expected mortality was estimated using regression models. Excess death was calculated as the difference between observed and expected mortality. An excess of 160 676 deaths (95% CI 146 861 to 174 491) was estimated, representing a rate of 116.9 (95% CI 115.5 to 118.3) additional deaths per 100 000 personyears. Significant heterogeneity was found among the different argentine provinces. The results indicate an uneven impact of the pandemic, with higher excess mortality rates in some regions and more vulnerable age groups. These patterns suggest the need for differentiated strategies of healthcare response and support to the most vulnerable populations in scenarios of new epidemics.
到目前为止，关于阿根廷新冠疫情期间超额死亡率的报告尚不完整且零散。本研究旨在量化超额死亡人数，并探讨2020年至2022年期间其人口统计学、时间和地理分布情况。利用来自人口动态统计的1192963条死亡记录数据和人口预测，通过回归模型估计预期死亡率。超额死亡人数计算为观察到的死亡率与预期死亡率之间的差值。估计超额死亡人数为160676人（95%置信区间为146861至174491），相当于每10万人年额外死亡116.9人（95%置信区间为115.5至118.3）。在阿根廷不同省份之间发现了显著的异质性。结果表明，疫情的影响不均衡，一些地区和更脆弱年龄组的超额死亡率更高。这些模式表明，在新的疫情形势下，需要针对最脆弱人群制定差异化的医疗应对和支持策略。
