Department of Geography, Faculty of Social Sciences, The University of Hong Kong, Pok Fu Lam, Hong Kong.
Department of Civil, Environmental, and Geomatic Engineering, ETH Zürich, Switzerland.
Int J Infect Dis. 2022 Sep;122:534-536. doi: 10.1016/j.ijid.2022.06.042. Epub 2022 Jul 3.
We simulated the COVID-19 Omicron spread in Hong Kong, China, by building a novel three-dimensional agent-based model that incorporates its vertically expanded, hyperdense urban environment. The model examined the effectiveness of the 'zero-COVID' interventions (i.e., Compulsory Universal Testing (CUT) and citywide lockdown) that were for debate during the Omicron wave in Hong Kong. We found that such stringent interventions would be effective only with even faster and stricter implementation. Therefore, flexible long-term strategies should also be considered to contain and prevent future infectious diseases.
我们通过建立一个新的三维基于代理的模型来模拟 COVID-19 奥密克戎在中国香港的传播，该模型纳入了其垂直扩展的高密度城市环境。该模型研究了“零新冠”干预措施（即强制普遍检测和全市封锁）的有效性，这些措施在奥密克戎浪潮期间在香港引发了争议。我们发现，只有更快、更严格地实施这些严格的干预措施才会有效。因此，还应考虑灵活的长期策略来控制和预防未来的传染病。
