Emerg Infect Dis. 2022 Sep;28(9):1777-1784. doi: 10.3201/eid2809.220377. Epub 2022 Jul 12.
COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness against death in Japan remains unknown. Furthermore, although evidence indicates that healthcare capacity influences case-fatality risk (CFR), it remains unknown whether this relationship is mediated by age. With a modeling study, we analyzed daily COVID-19 cases and deaths during January-August 2021 by using Tokyo surveillance data to jointly estimate COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness against death and age-specific CFR. We also examined daily healthcare operations to determine the association between healthcare burden and age-specific CFR. Among fully vaccinated patients, vaccine effectiveness against death was 88.6% among patients 60-69 years of age, 83.9% among patients 70-79 years of age, 83.5% among patients 80-89 years of age, and 77.7% among patients >90 years of age. A positive association of several indicators of healthcare burden with CFR among patients >70 years of age suggested an age-dependent effect of healthcare burden on CFR in Japan.
日本的 COVID-19 疫苗对死亡的有效性仍不清楚。此外，尽管有证据表明医疗保健能力影响病死率（CFR），但仍不清楚这种关系是否通过年龄来介导。我们使用东京监测数据，通过建模研究分析了 2021 年 1 月至 8 月期间的每日 COVID-19 病例和死亡人数，以联合估算 COVID-19 疫苗对死亡的有效性和年龄特异性 CFR。我们还检查了每日的医疗保健运营情况，以确定医疗保健负担与年龄特异性 CFR 之间的关联。在完全接种疫苗的患者中，60-69 岁患者的疫苗对死亡的有效性为 88.6%，70-79 岁患者为 83.9%，80-89 岁患者为 83.5%，>90 岁患者为 77.7%。在>70 岁的患者中，医疗保健负担的几个指标与 CFR 呈正相关，这表明日本的医疗保健负担对 CFR 的影响具有年龄依赖性。
