HealthLumen Ltd, London, United Kingdom.
Liver Disease Research Centre, Department of Medicine, College of Medicine, King Saud University, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.
PLoS One. 2022 Jul 14;17(7):e0271108. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0271108. eCollection 2022.
Obesity and type 2 diabetes (T2DM) are increasing in Saudi Arabia (SA). Among other conditions, these risk factors increase the likelihood of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD), which in turn increases risks for advanced liver diseases, such as non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH), cirrhosis and cancer. The goal of this study was to quantify the health and economic burden of obesity-attributable T2DM and liver disease in SA.
We developed a microsimulation of the SA population to quantify the future incidence and direct health care costs of obesity-attributable T2DM and liver disease, including liver cancer. Model inputs included population demographics, body mass index, incidence, mortality and direct health care costs of T2DM and liver disease and relative risks of each condition as a function of BMI category. Model outputs included age- and sex-disaggregated incidence of obesity-attributable T2DM and liver disease and their direct health care costs for SA's working-age population (20-59 years) between 2020 and 2040.
Between 2020 and 2040, the available data predicts 1,976,593 [± 1834] new cases of T2DM, 285,346 [±874] new cases of chronic liver diseases, and 2,101 [± 150] new cases of liver cancer attributable to obesity, amongst working-age people. By 2040, the direct health care costs of these obesity-attributable diseases are predicted to be 127,956,508,540 [± 51,882,446] USD.
The increase in obesity-associated T2DM and liver disease emphasises the urgent need for obesity interventions and strategies to meaningfully reduce the future health and economic burden of T2DM, chronic liver diseases and liver cancer in SA.
肥胖和 2 型糖尿病（T2DM）在沙特阿拉伯（SA）呈上升趋势。除其他疾病外，这些风险因素增加了非酒精性脂肪性肝病（NAFLD）的可能性，进而增加了非酒精性脂肪性肝炎（NASH）、肝硬化和癌症等晚期肝病的风险。本研究的目的是量化 SA 肥胖相关 T2DM 和肝病的健康和经济负担。
我们开发了一个 SA 人群的微观模拟模型，以量化肥胖相关 T2DM 和肝病（包括肝癌）的未来发病率和直接医疗保健成本。模型输入包括人口统计学数据、体重指数、发病率、死亡率和 T2DM 和肝病的直接医疗保健成本，以及每种疾病与 BMI 类别的相对风险。模型输出包括 SA 劳动年龄人口（20-59 岁）在 2020 年至 2040 年期间肥胖相关 T2DM 和肝病的年龄和性别分类发病率及其直接医疗保健成本。
在 2020 年至 2040 年期间，根据现有数据预测，劳动年龄人群中将出现 1976593[±1834]例新的 T2DM、285346[±874]例新的慢性肝病和 2101[±150]例新的肥胖相关肝癌病例。到 2040 年，这些肥胖相关疾病的直接医疗保健成本预计将达到 127956508540[±51882446]美元。
肥胖相关 T2DM 和肝病的增加强调了迫切需要采取肥胖干预措施和战略，以显著减轻 SA 未来 T2DM、慢性肝病和肝癌的健康和经济负担。
