Department of Mathematics, College of Science, University of Jeddah, Jeddah, Saudi Arabia.
Department of Mathematics, University of Texas at Arlington, Arlington, TX, 76019, USA.
J Math Biol. 2022 Jul 15;85(1):10. doi: 10.1007/s00285-022-01767-7.
Demand for influenza vaccine rose as countries prepared for the second COVID-19 wave over the winter months of 2020-2021. High coverage of the influenza vaccine can significantly reduce morbidity and mortality of the burden of influenza. Natural influenza infection creates short-term non-specific immunity against respiratory viruses (virus interference). We model two viral diseases, both of the SEIR type, to investigate whether the influenza vaccine increases the combined disease burden of influenza and COVID-19 in a dual outbreak. We show that the combined disease burden's behavior depends on virus interference factors and the proportion of the population vaccinated against influenza. Our results indicate that influenza vaccination only lowers the overall disease burden when net virus interference is relatively low.
随着各国为 2020-2021 年冬季的第二波 COVID-19 做准备，对流感疫苗的需求上升。高覆盖率的流感疫苗可以显著降低流感的发病率和死亡率。自然流感感染会对呼吸道病毒（病毒干扰）产生短期的非特异性免疫力。我们建立了两种 SEIR 类型的病毒疾病模型，以研究流感疫苗是否会增加流感和 COVID-19 在双重爆发中的合并疾病负担。我们表明，合并疾病负担的行为取决于病毒干扰因素和针对流感接种疫苗的人群比例。我们的研究结果表明，只有当净病毒干扰相对较低时，流感疫苗接种才能降低整体疾病负担。
