Liang Xiao, Rozelle Scott, Yi Hongmei
School of Advanced Agricultural Sciences, Peking University, China.
China Center for Agricultural Policy, Peking University, China.
China Econ Rev. 2022 Oct;75:101832. doi: 10.1016/j.chieco.2022.101832. Epub 2022 Jul 12.
The COVID-19 pandemic shocked the economy of China in early 2020. Strict lockdown measures were implemented nationwide to prevent the further spread of the virus. During the lockdown period, many economic activities were affected, which had repercussions for the nation's overall employment. Vocational graduates were among the most affected by the crisis. To estimate the causal effects of COVID-19 on the full-time employment of vocational high school graduates as well as their monthly income and hours worked by week, we exploit variations in the intensity of the pandemic in time and across space using survey data from vocational schools from six provinces in China. The results of the difference-in-differences (DID) estimates indicate that being located in counties with high pandemic intensity significantly reduced both the employment in full-time jobs of vocational graduates as well as their monthly income. Our study's analysis demonstrates that the effects of COVID-19 on the labor market can be attributed to the large-scale contraction of labor demand of the enterprises that were hiring vocational graduates. To cope with this situation, vocational graduates took various measures, including reducing consumption, drawing on their savings, searching for new jobs, taking on part-time jobs, borrowing money, and attending new training programs. In addition, the empirical analysis finds that there were heterogeneous effects with respect to gender, family social capital, the industry in which the vocational graduate was participating, and whether the individual was in a management position.
2020年初，新冠疫情冲击了中国经济。全国实施了严格的封锁措施以防止病毒进一步传播。在封锁期间，许多经济活动受到影响，这对国家的整体就业产生了影响。职业院校毕业生是受危机影响最大的群体之一。为了估计新冠疫情对职业高中毕业生全职就业、月收入以及每周工作时长的因果效应，我们利用中国六个省份职业院校的调查数据，分析了疫情在时间和空间上的强度差异。双重差分（DID）估计结果表明，身处疫情高强度县显著降低了职业院校毕业生的全职就业和月收入。我们研究的分析表明，新冠疫情对劳动力市场的影响可归因于招聘职业院校毕业生企业的劳动力需求大幅收缩。为应对这种情况，职业院校毕业生采取了各种措施，包括减少消费、动用储蓄、寻找新工作、从事兼职工作、借钱以及参加新的培训项目。此外，实证分析发现，在性别、家庭社会资本、职业院校毕业生所从事的行业以及个人是否处于管理岗位方面存在异质性影响。
