Almeida Vanda, Barrios Salvador, Christl Michael, De Poli Silvia, Tumino Alberto, van der Wielen Wouter
European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC-Seville), Edificio Expo, Calle Inca Garcilaso, 3, 41092 Seville, Spain.
Institute for Social and Economic Research (ISER), University of Essex, Wivenhoe Park, Colchester, Essex, UK.
J Econ Inequal. 2021;19(3):413-431. doi: 10.1007/s10888-021-09485-8. Epub 2021 Jun 1.
This analysis makes use of economic forecasts for 2020 issued by the European Commission in Autumn 2019 and Spring 2020, and of a counterfactual under a no-policy change assumption, to analyse the impact of the COVID-19 crisis on EU households´ income. Additionally, our analysis assesses the cushioning effect of discretionary fiscal policy measures taken by the EU Member States. We find that the COVID-19 pandemic is likely to affect significantly households' disposable income in the EU, with lower income households being more severely hit. However, our results show that due to policy intervention, the impact of the crisis is expected to be similar to the one experienced during the 2008-2009 financial crisis. In detail, our results indicate that discretionary fiscal policy measures will play a significant cushioning role, reducing the size of the income loss (from -9.3% to -4.3% for the average equivalised disposable income), its regressivity and mitigating the poverty impact of the pandemic. We conclude that policy interventions are therefore instrumental in cushioning against the impact of the crisis on inequality and poverty.
The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10888-021-09485-8.
本分析利用了欧盟委员会在2019年秋季和2020年春季发布的2020年经济预测，以及在无政策变化假设下的反事实情况，以分析新冠疫情危机对欧盟家庭收入的影响。此外，我们的分析评估了欧盟成员国采取的自由裁量财政政策措施的缓冲作用。我们发现，新冠疫情可能会对欧盟家庭的可支配收入产生重大影响，低收入家庭受到的冲击更为严重。然而，我们的结果表明，由于政策干预，危机的影响预计将与2008 - 2009年金融危机期间的情况类似。具体而言，我们的结果表明，自由裁量财政政策措施将发挥显著的缓冲作用，减少收入损失的规模（平均等价可支配收入从-9.3%降至-4.3%），降低其累退性，并减轻疫情对贫困的影响。我们得出结论，因此政策干预对于缓冲危机对不平等和贫困的影响至关重要。
在线版本包含可在10.1007/s10888-021-09485-8获取的补充材料。
