Emerging Trends in Arctic Solar Absorption.

Recent satellite observations confirm that the Arctic is absorbing more solar radiation now than at the start of this century in response to declining Arctic sea ice and snow covers. Trends in the solar radiation input to Arctic ocean and land surfaces now each exceed interannual variability at the 95% confidence level, although all-sky trends have taken 20%-40% longer to emerge compared to clear-sky conditions. Clouds reduce mean solar absorption and secular trends over both land and ocean, but the effect of clouds on natural variability depends on the underlying surface. While clouds increase the time needed to unambiguously identify trends in nearly all Arctic regions, their masking effects are strongest over oceans. Clouds have extended the time to emergence of already observed clear-sky trends beyond the existing 21 years Clouds and Earth's Radiant Energy System record in half of eight Arctic seas, supporting the need for continued satellite-based radiative flux observations over the Arctic.