Can e-commerce alleviate agricultural non-point source pollution? - A quasi-natural experiment based on a China's E-Commerce Demonstration City.

Agricultural non-point source pollution is an important driving factor that causes systemic pollution of the ecological environment and directly threatens the sustainable development of agriculture, human health, and safety. As a new engine to reshape the agricultural development model, e-commerce is of great significance to the mitigation of agricultural non-point source pollution. This study regards China's National E-commerce Demonstration Cities (NEDCs) as a quasi-natural experiment and uses the Multi-period difference in difference (DID) method to investigate the impact of urban e-commerce development on agricultural non-point source pollution and its mechanism. The results show that compared with the control group, the NEDC policy reduced the total fertilizer consumption in the pilot cities by 7.5 percentage points, and at the same time had a reduction effect on the consumption of nitrogen fertilizers, pesticides, and agricultural films. According to the analysis of the underlying mechanism, this abatement effect is achieved by increasing the economic performance of the NEDC pilot cities represented by GDP and GDP per capita, and promoting technological innovation represented by green patents and green utility patents. The analysis of heterogeneity finds that the reduction effect of e-commerce on agricultural non-point source pollution is stronger in areas such as main grain production areas and high-value agrochemical input areas. Accordingly, this study proposes that the government should pay attention to regional heterogeneity and formulate support policies for agricultural e-commerce based on local conditions. Moreover, we should actively advance the development of the new business model of "e-commerce + agriculture" and promote the organic integration of agricultural development and ecological civilization.