Dept. of Environmental Science and Engineering, Fudan University, Shanghai, 200438, PR China; Center for Land and Resource Economics Studies, Fudan University, Shanghai, 200433, PR China.
Center for Land and Resource Economics Studies, Fudan University, Shanghai, 200433, PR China.
J Environ Manage. 2023 Oct 15;344:118613. doi: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2023.118613. Epub 2023 Jul 16.
Agricultural non-point source (ANPS) pollution is a pressing environmental issue in developing countries that poses a substantial threat to sustainable development. With the rapid growth of e-commerce and its great penetration and transformation in many socioeconomic sectors, e-commerce plus agriculture is widely regarded as the solution to sustainable agricultural development. However, the environmental impacts of e-commerce on agriculture, as well as the underlying mechanisms have yet to be fully explored and verified. Based on China's practices of e-commerce development and its integration with agriculture, a panel dataset of 283 prefecture-level cities from 2009 to 2019 was collected, and a spatial difference in difference (SDID) model combined with a Durbin model was constructed to examine the local and spatial spillover effects of e-commerce development on ANPS pollution. It is found out that e-commerce development has significant positive environmental impacts achieved by stimulating industrial structure upgrading and promoting green technology innovation, while the mechanism of cultivation scaling up tends to aggravate the ANPS pollution. Spatial analysis demonstrates that e-commerce development also helps alleviate the ANPS pollution of neighboring regions with a decayed effect over a distance. Meanwhile, the impact of e-commerce on mitigating ANPS pollution shows regional heterogeneity. Those developed regions present significant positive effects, while those regions dominated by agriculture economy and without sufficient supporting facilities for e-commerce development, show significant negative effects. Therefore, we argue that the positive environmental contribution of e-commerce is not bound to happen but instead is contingent, while policies should be adapted to local conditions and enhanced to encourage the integration of e-commerce and other socioeconomic sectors, in order to develop beyond the immature pioneering stage.
农业面源（ANPS）污染是发展中国家面临的一个紧迫的环境问题，对可持续发展构成了重大威胁。随着电子商务的快速发展及其在许多社会经济部门的广泛渗透和转型，电子商务加农业被广泛认为是可持续农业发展的解决方案。然而，电子商务对农业的环境影响以及潜在机制尚未得到充分探讨和验证。基于中国电子商务发展实践及其与农业的融合，收集了 2009 年至 2019 年 283 个地级市的面板数据集，构建了空间差异差分（SDID）模型和 Durbin 模型，以检验电子商务发展对农业面源污染的本地和空间溢出效应。结果表明，电子商务发展通过刺激产业结构升级和促进绿色技术创新，对环境具有显著的积极影响，而种植规模扩大的机制往往会加剧农业面源污染。空间分析表明，电子商务发展还有助于减轻邻近地区的农业面源污染，但其影响会随着距离的衰减而减弱。同时，电子商务对缓解农业面源污染的影响表现出区域异质性。发达地区呈现出显著的正效应，而那些以农业经济为主、缺乏电子商务发展支撑设施的地区，则呈现出显著的负效应。因此，我们认为，电子商务的积极环境贡献不一定会发生，而是取决于具体情况，政策应因地制宜，并加强对电子商务与其他社会经济部门融合的鼓励，以超越不成熟的开拓阶段。
