E-commerce development and its contribution to agricultural non-point source pollution control: Evidence from 283 cities in China.

Agricultural non-point source (ANPS) pollution is a pressing environmental issue in developing countries that poses a substantial threat to sustainable development. With the rapid growth of e-commerce and its great penetration and transformation in many socioeconomic sectors, e-commerce plus agriculture is widely regarded as the solution to sustainable agricultural development. However, the environmental impacts of e-commerce on agriculture, as well as the underlying mechanisms have yet to be fully explored and verified. Based on China's practices of e-commerce development and its integration with agriculture, a panel dataset of 283 prefecture-level cities from 2009 to 2019 was collected, and a spatial difference in difference (SDID) model combined with a Durbin model was constructed to examine the local and spatial spillover effects of e-commerce development on ANPS pollution. It is found out that e-commerce development has significant positive environmental impacts achieved by stimulating industrial structure upgrading and promoting green technology innovation, while the mechanism of cultivation scaling up tends to aggravate the ANPS pollution. Spatial analysis demonstrates that e-commerce development also helps alleviate the ANPS pollution of neighboring regions with a decayed effect over a distance. Meanwhile, the impact of e-commerce on mitigating ANPS pollution shows regional heterogeneity. Those developed regions present significant positive effects, while those regions dominated by agriculture economy and without sufficient supporting facilities for e-commerce development, show significant negative effects. Therefore, we argue that the positive environmental contribution of e-commerce is not bound to happen but instead is contingent, while policies should be adapted to local conditions and enhanced to encourage the integration of e-commerce and other socioeconomic sectors, in order to develop beyond the immature pioneering stage.