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资源分配策略对流行病空间传播的干预。

Intervention of resource allocation strategies on spatial spread of epidemics.

作者信息

Zhang Kebo, Han Yuexing, Gou Min, Wang Bing

机构信息

School of Computer Engineering and Science, Shanghai University, 99 Shangda Road, Shanghai 200444, People's Republic of China.

Zhejiang Laboratory, Hangzhou 311100, China.

出版信息

Phys Rev E. 2022 Jun;105(6-1):064308. doi: 10.1103/PhysRevE.105.064308.

Abstract

Medical resources are crucial in mitigating epidemics, especially during pandemics such as the ongoing COVID-19. Thereby, reasonable resource deployment inevitably plays a significant role in suppressing the epidemic under limited resources. When an epidemic breaks out, people can produce resources for self-protection or donate resources to help others for treatment. That is, the exchange of resources also affects the transmission between individuals, thus, altering the epidemic dynamics. To understand factors on resource deployment and the interplay between resource and transmission we construct a metapopulation network model with resource allocation. Our results indicate actively or promptly donating resources is not helpful to suppress the epidemic under both homogeneous population distribution and heterogeneous population distribution. Besides, strengthening the speed of resources production can significantly increase the recovery rate so that they reduce the final outbreak size. These results may provide policy guidance toward epidemic containment.

摘要

医疗资源在缓解疫情方面至关重要,尤其是在诸如当前新冠疫情这样的大流行期间。因此,在资源有限的情况下,合理的资源调配必然在抑制疫情方面发挥重要作用。当疫情爆发时,人们可以生产自我保护资源或捐赠资源帮助他人治疗。也就是说,资源的交换也会影响个体之间的传播,从而改变疫情动态。为了理解资源调配的影响因素以及资源与传播之间的相互作用,我们构建了一个具有资源分配的异质种群网络模型。我们的结果表明,在同质人群分布和异质人群分布下,积极或迅速捐赠资源都无助于抑制疫情。此外,提高资源生产速度可以显著提高康复率,从而减小最终爆发规模。这些结果可能为疫情防控提供政策指导。

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