Labs Jennifer, Nunn Amy S, Chan Philip A, Bessey S, Park Carolyn J, Marshall Brandon D L, Patel Rupa R, Mena Leandro A, Goedel William C
Department of Applied Mathematics, Brown University, Providence, Rhode Island, USA.
Department of Behavioral and Social Sciences, School of Public Health, Brown University, Providence, Rhode Island, USA.
Open Forum Infect Dis. 2022 Jun 6;9(7):ofac274. doi: 10.1093/ofid/ofac274. eCollection 2022 Jul.
Disruptions in access to in-person human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) preventive care during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic may have a negative impact on our progress towards the Ending the HIV Epidemic goals in the United States.
We used an agent-based model to simulate HIV transmission among Black/African American men who have sex with men in Mississippi over 5 years to estimate how different reductions in access affected the number of undiagnosed HIV cases, new pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) starts, and HIV incidence.
We found that each additional 25% decrease in HIV testing and PrEP initiation was associated with decrease of 20% in the number of cases diagnosed and 23% in the number of new PrEP starts, leading to a 15% increase in HIV incidence from 2020 to 2022.
Unmet need for HIV testing and PrEP prescriptions during the COVID-19 pandemic may temporarily increase HIV incidence in the years immediately after the disruption period.
2019年冠状病毒病（COVID - 19）大流行期间，获得面对面的人类免疫缺陷病毒（HIV）预防护理的机会中断，可能会对美国在实现终结HIV流行目标方面的进展产生负面影响。
我们使用基于主体的模型来模拟密西西比州5年间男男性行为的黑人/非裔美国男性中的HIV传播情况，以估计不同程度的获得机会减少如何影响未诊断HIV病例数、新的暴露前预防（PrEP）开始使用人数以及HIV发病率。
我们发现，HIV检测和PrEP开始使用人数每额外减少25%，诊断出的病例数就会减少20%，新的PrEP开始使用人数会减少23%，导致2020年至2022年HIV发病率增加15%。
COVID - 19大流行期间未满足的HIV检测和PrEP处方需求，可能会在中断期后的几年内暂时增加HIV发病率。
