Du M, Jing W Z, Wang Y P, Kang L Y, Shang W J, Liu M, Liu J
Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Peking University, Beijing 100191, China.
Zhonghua Liu Xing Bing Xue Za Zhi. 2022 Jul 10;43(7):1066-1072. doi: 10.3760/cma.j.cn112338-20220125-00072.
To analyze epidemic situation of dengue fever in 2019 and the incidence trends from 2013 to 2019 in the Belt and Road countries. We used age-standardized incidence rate (ASR) which was from Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 to describe the epidemic situation of dengue fever in 2019. The estimated annual percentage change(EAPC) of the ASR was calculated to assess dengue fever incidence trends from 2013 to 2019. The 2019 GBD dengue fever incidence records showed that in 145 Belt and Road countries, 93 (64.14%) countries had dengue fever epidemics. In 2019, there were 11 countries with the incidence >3 000.00 per 100 000, including 9 countries in Oceania; 16 countries with the incidence of 1 000.00 per 100 000-2 999.99 per 100 000, including 10 countries in Asia. The incidence rates in most countries in Africa (58.14%,25/43), North America (72.73%,8/11) and South America (66.67%,4/6) ranged from 500.00 per 100 000 to 999.99 per 100 000. The incidence rates of dengue fever in 90.00% (9/10) of countries in Oceania showed increasing trend, and the increasing trend in Fiji was most obvious (EAPC=18.22,95%:12.91-23.77), and the incidence rates of dengue fever in 18.18% (4/22) of countries in Asia showed increasing trend, the increasing trend in the Philippines was most obvious (EAPC=3.09,95%:1.74-4.45), and the incidence rates of dengue fever in 4.65% (2/43) of countries in Africa showed increasing trend, and the increasing trend in Seychelles was most obvious (EAPC=18.20,95%:7.82-29.58). The incidence rates of dengue fever showed no increasing trend in countries in South America and North America. In 2019, more than 60% of the Belt and Road countries had dengue fever epidemics. The incidences of dengue fever were high and showed increasing trends in most Oceanian countries, but the dengue fever epidemics in the countries in Asia, Africa and Americas were relatively mild.
分析2019年登革热疫情以及“一带一路”国家2013年至2019年的发病率趋势。我们使用了来自《2019年全球疾病负担研究》的年龄标准化发病率（ASR）来描述2019年登革热疫情。计算ASR的估计年百分比变化（EAPC）以评估2013年至2019年登革热发病率趋势。《2019年全球疾病负担登革热发病率记录》显示，在145个“一带一路”国家中，93个（64.14%）国家有登革热疫情。2019年，发病率>3000.00/10万的国家有11个，其中大洋洲9个；发病率为1000.00/10万 - 2999.99/10万的国家有16个，其中亚洲10个。非洲大多数国家（58.14%，25/43）、北美洲（72.73%，8/11）和南美洲（66.67%，4/6）的发病率在500.00/10万至999.99/10万之间。大洋洲90.00%（9/10）的国家登革热发病率呈上升趋势，斐济上升趋势最明显（EAPC = 18.22，95%：12.91 - 23.77）；亚洲18.18%（4/22）的国家登革热发病率呈上升趋势，菲律宾上升趋势最明显（EAPC = 3.09，95%：1.74 - 4.45）；非洲4.65%（2/43）的国家登革热发病率呈上升趋势，塞舌尔上升趋势最明显（EAPC = 18.20，95%：7.82 - 29.58）。南美洲和北美洲国家登革热发病率无上升趋势。2019年，超过60%的“一带一路”国家有登革热疫情。大多数大洋洲国家登革热发病率高且呈上升趋势，但亚洲、非洲和美洲国家的登革热疫情相对较轻。
