Department of Mathematics, Baruch College, New York, New York, United States of America.
School of Public Health, City University of New York, New York, New York, United States of America.
PLoS One. 2022 Jul 21;17(7):e0270106. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0270106. eCollection 2022.
We construct an agent-based SEIR model to simulate COVID-19 spread at a 16000-student mostly non-residential urban university during the Fall 2021 Semester. We find that mRNA vaccine coverage at 100% combined with weekly screening testing of 25% of the campus population make it possible to safely reopen to in-person instruction. Our simulations exhibit a right-skew for total infections over the semester that becomes more pronounced with less vaccine coverage, less vaccine effectiveness and no additional preventative measures. This suggests that high levels of infection are not exceedingly rare with campus social connections the main transmission route. Finally, we find that if vaccine coverage is 100% and vaccine effectiveness is above 80%, then a safe reopening is possible even without facemask use. This models possible future scenarios with high coverage of additional "booster" doses of COVID-19 vaccines.
我们构建了一个基于主体的 SEIR 模型，以模拟 2021 年秋季学期在一所拥有 16000 名学生、以走读为主的城市大学校园内 COVID-19 的传播情况。我们发现，mRNA 疫苗接种率达到 100%，加上对校园人口的 25%进行每周筛查检测，可安全地恢复面授教学。我们的模拟显示，整个学期的总感染人数呈右偏分布，随着疫苗接种率、疫苗有效性和其他预防措施的降低，这种分布变得更加明显。这表明，由于校园社交联系是主要的传播途径，高水平的感染并非极其罕见。最后，我们发现，如果疫苗接种率达到 100%，且疫苗有效性超过 80%，那么即使不使用口罩，也可以安全地重新开放。这模拟了未来可能出现的高覆盖率的 COVID-19 疫苗“加强针”接种情况。
