Uncertainty quantification in cerebral circulation simulations focusing on the collateral flow: Surrogate model approach with machine learning.

Collateral circulation in the circle of Willis (CoW), closely associated with disease mechanisms and treatment outcomes, can be effectively investigated using one-dimensional-zero-dimensional hemodynamic simulations. As the entire cardiovascular system is considered in the simulation, it captures the systemic effects of local arterial changes, thus reproducing collateral circulation that reflects biological phenomena. The simulation facilitates rapid assessment of clinically relevant hemodynamic quantities under patient-specific conditions by incorporating clinical data. During patient-specific simulations, the impact of clinical data uncertainty on the simulated quantities should be quantified to obtain reliable results. However, as uncertainty quantification (UQ) is time-consuming and computationally expensive, its implementation in time-sensitive clinical applications is considered impractical. Therefore, we constructed a surrogate model based on machine learning using simulation data. The model accurately predicts the flow rate and pressure in the CoW in a few milliseconds. This reduced computation time enables the UQ execution with 100 000 predictions in a few minutes on a single CPU core and in less than a minute on a GPU. We performed UQ to predict the risk of cerebral hyperperfusion (CH), a life-threatening condition that can occur after carotid artery stenosis surgery if collateral circulation fails to function appropriately. We predicted the statistics of the postoperative flow rate increase in the CoW, which is a measure of CH, considering the uncertainties of arterial diameters, stenosis parameters, and flow rates measured using the patients' clinical data. A sensitivity analysis was performed to clarify the impact of each uncertain parameter on the flow rate increase. Results indicated that CH occurred when two conditions were satisfied simultaneously: severe stenosis and when arteries of small diameter serve as the collateral pathway to the cerebral artery on the stenosis side. These findings elucidate the biological aspects of cerebral circulation in terms of the relationship between collateral flow and CH.