Department of Radiotherapy, Anyang Tumor Hospital, The Affiliated Anyang Tumor Hospital of Henan University of Science and Technology, Henan Medical Key Laboratory of Precise Prevention and Treatment of Esophageal Cancer, Anyang 455000, China.
Biomed Res Int. 2022 Jul 14;2022:6455555. doi: 10.1155/2022/6455555. eCollection 2022.
This study aims to develop and validate a effective prognostic nomogram for locally advanced esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (LA-ESCC) patients undergoing concurrent chemoradiotherapy (CCRT). Retrospective analysis of 503 patients with LA-ESCC given CCRT in our hospital from 2009 to 2016 was conducted. Two-thirds of the patients were randomly assigned to the training set ( = 335), and one-third were assigned to the validation set ( = 168). In order to generate the nomogram, multivariate cox regression analysis was undertaken in the training set for uncovering significant prognostic variables for overall survival. The -index and calibration plot were used to verify nomogram discrimination and calibration, respectively. Five independent prognostic variables were found and incorporated into a nomogram: age, N stage, location, tumor response, and MLR (monocyte/lymphocyte ratio). The -indexes of the training set and the validation set were 0.730 and 0.745, respectively. The discrimination and calibration of this nomogram showed good predictive power in both sets. Conclusively, the proposed nomogram may be served as an effective tool for prognostic evaluation of LA-ESCC patients receiving CCRT.
本研究旨在为接受同期放化疗（CCRT）的局部晚期食管鳞状细胞癌（LA-ESCC）患者开发和验证一种有效的预后列线图。对 2009 年至 2016 年在我院接受 CCRT 的 503 例 LA-ESCC 患者进行回顾性分析。将三分之二的患者随机分配到训练集（n=335），三分之一分配到验证集（n=168）。为了生成列线图，在训练集中进行多变量 Cox 回归分析，以揭示总生存的显著预后变量。使用-指数和校准图分别验证列线图的区分度和校准度。发现了五个独立的预后变量，并将其纳入到一个列线图中：年龄、N 分期、位置、肿瘤反应和 MLR（单核细胞/淋巴细胞比率）。训练集和验证集的-指数分别为 0.730 和 0.745。该列线图在两组中的区分度和校准度均显示出良好的预测能力。总之，该列线图可作为评估接受 CCRT 的 LA-ESCC 患者预后的有效工具。
