潜伏期如何影响新型冠状病毒肺炎传播动力学的建模？
HOW DOES THE LATENCY PERIOD IMPACT THE MODELING OF COVID-19 TRANSMISSION DYNAMICS?
作者信息
Patterson Ben, Wang Jin
机构信息
Department of Mathematics, University of Tennessee at Chattanooga, Chattanooga, TN 37403, USA.
出版信息
Math Appl Sci Eng. 2022 Mar 30;3(1):60-85. doi: 10.5206/mase/14537. Epub 2022 Feb 20.
Abstract
We introduce two mathematical models based on systems of differential equations to investigate the relationship between the latency period and the transmission dynamics of COVID-19. We analyze the equilibrium and stability properties of these models, and perform an asymptotic study in terms of small and large latency periods. We fit the models to the COVID-19 data in the U.S. state of Tennessee. Our numerical results demonstrate the impact of the latency period on the dynamical behaviors of the solutions, on the value of the basic reproduction numbers, and on the accuracy of the model predictions.
摘要
我们引入了两个基于微分方程系统的数学模型，以研究新冠病毒潜伏期与传播动态之间的关系。我们分析了这些模型的平衡和稳定性特性，并针对长短不同的潜伏期进行了渐近性研究。我们将模型拟合到美国田纳西州的新冠疫情数据上。我们的数值结果证明了潜伏期对解的动力学行为、基本再生数的值以及模型预测准确性的影响。
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