Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, College of Public Health, Zhengzhou University, No. 100 Kexue Avenue, Zhengzhou, 450001, Henan, People's Republic of China.
Department of Nutrition and Food Hygiene, College of Public Health, Zhengzhou University, No. 100 Kexue Avenue, Zhengzhou, 450001, Henan, People's Republic of China.
Infect Dis Poverty. 2021 Sep 17;10(1):119. doi: 10.1186/s40249-021-00901-9.
The incubation period is a crucial index of epidemiology in understanding the spread of the emerging Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). In this study, we aimed to describe the incubation period of COVID-19 globally and in the mainland of China.
The searched studies were published from December 1, 2019 to May 26, 2021 in CNKI, Wanfang, PubMed, and Embase databases. A random-effect model was used to pool the mean incubation period. Meta-regression was used to explore the sources of heterogeneity. Meanwhile, we collected 11 545 patients in the mainland of China outside Hubei from January 19, 2020 to September 21, 2020. The incubation period fitted with the Log-normal model by the coarseDataTools package.
A total of 3235 articles were searched, 53 of which were included in the meta-analysis. The pooled mean incubation period of COVID-19 was 6.0 days (95% confidence interval [CI] 5.6-6.5) globally, 6.5 days (95% CI 6.1-6.9) in the mainland of China, and 4.6 days (95% CI 4.1-5.1) outside the mainland of China (P = 0.006). The incubation period varied with age (P = 0.005). Meanwhile, in 11 545 patients, the mean incubation period was 7.1 days (95% CI 7.0-7.2), which was similar to the finding in our meta-analysis.
For COVID-19, the mean incubation period was 6.0 days globally but near 7.0 days in the mainland of China, which will help identify the time of infection and make disease control decisions. Furthermore, attention should also be paid to the region- or age-specific incubation period.
潜伏期是了解新型冠状病毒病 2019（COVID-19）传播的流行病学的关键指标。本研究旨在描述 COVID-19 的全球和中国大陆潜伏期。
从 2019 年 12 月 1 日至 2021 年 5 月 26 日，在 CNKI、万方、PubMed 和 Embase 数据库中检索发表的研究。使用随机效应模型汇总平均潜伏期。使用元回归探索异质性的来源。同时，我们收集了 2020 年 1 月 19 日至 2020 年 9 月 21 日中国大陆以外的 11545 例患者。使用 coarseDataTools 包对潜伏期进行对数正态拟合。
共检索到 3235 篇文章，其中 53 篇纳入荟萃分析。COVID-19 的全球平均潜伏期为 6.0 天（95%置信区间[CI] 5.6-6.5），中国大陆为 6.5 天（95% CI 6.1-6.9），中国大陆以外为 4.6 天（95% CI 4.1-5.1）（P = 0.006）。潜伏期随年龄而变化（P = 0.005）。同时，在 11545 例患者中，平均潜伏期为 7.1 天（95% CI 7.0-7.2），与荟萃分析结果相似。
对于 COVID-19，全球平均潜伏期为 6.0 天，但中国大陆接近 7.0 天，这将有助于确定感染时间并做出疾病控制决策。此外，还应注意特定地区或特定年龄的潜伏期。
